Thursday, February 11, 2010

Quick Thoughts on Farnsworth

Today, the Royals announced that Kyle Farnsworth would be competing for a spot in the starting rotation. My first thought was "why?", which over the next few hours turned into "why not?"

It's a perfectly good question. Why not try him as a starter? Farnsworth has long toiled as a tormented set up man all across baseball. But he has never once been a starting pitcher. He isn't really built like a pitcher, more like a UFC fighter. He's had his chances in the bullpen and he usually blew them. But the funny thing is, when he pitches in low pressure situation, the guy gets people out. He had a 19 inning scoreless streak last year (which was broken when he appeared in a late innings situation and blew a lead). My point is, why not give him no lead to work with? Baseball is a mental game and has driven men crazy (See Dykstra, Lenny). Let's face it, if you're a pitcher you have to be mentally tough. Especially if you're in the bullpen. But I think the psychological advantage of being in the rotation is that there is less pressure on you than sitting on a bench for 3 hours and then being thrust into a game threatening situation.

I don't know if I could fully endorse the move, but like I said, why not?

Excuse Me While I Process...I Mean Project...

Well, Spring Training is just days away for the Royals. That being said, it is time for me to unveil my "gut instinct", non-statistical-yet-based-on-past-performance-projections! Enjoy.

We'll start off with the starting rotation.

Zack Greinke- 17-9, 2.56 ERA, 247 K, 230 IP. I expect Zack to regress, if you can call it that, due to the fact that I think the league will somewhat key in on him after watching mountains of tape. It probably won't help that much. I think his strikeouts will also go up just a bit.

Gil Meche- 13-12, 4.03 ERA, 162 K, 203 IP. As I have said in the past, I think we've seen the best of Gil Meche in a Royals uniform. He's getting older, but not old enough to warrant a big regression this year. I think Trey learned his lesson last year and Gil will stay relatively healthy.

Brian Bannister- 12-10, 3.57 ERA, 152 K, 210 IP. Banny is going to turn into a work horse this year. A REAL innings eater. I think he'll throw several good games for the Royals this year.

Luke Hochevar- 10-14, 4.38 ERA, 163 K, 187 IP. Luke is a guy who I think will finally start putting it together this year and will start climbing his way up to the top half of the rotation heading in to 2011. I really have faith in him because he showed us some brilliance in a handful of starts last year.

Kyle Davies- 2-8, 5.67 ERA, 102 K, 140 IP. I think he'll be relegated to bullpen duty by the All Star Break. He's got a world of potential, but I'm not sure if the mental makeup is there.

Lineup (projected)

1. RF David DeJesus- .283/.356/.440, 12 HR, 76 RBI, 10 SB. I think he's been the most consistent player on our roster in the past few years. If he puts up numbers like this with the Royals cellar dwelling in July, I expect him to be traded.

2. LF Scott Podsednik- .270/.325/.387, 4 HR, 48 RBI, 26 SB. I am not as gloomy about Pods as I was when we acquired him, but I think he'll provide average to decent numbers for a light hitting, poor baserunning 2-hole hitter.

3. 1B Billy Butler- .315/.385/.460, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 1 SB. I was looking forward to this projection all week. Really excited to see what Billy will do this year.

4. CF Rick Ankiel- .254/.312/.425, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 12 SB. All I want for him to do is gun people down and not strike out with runners in scoring position. I think he'll play well enough for people to like him.

5. 2B Alberto Callaspo- .298/.345/.425, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 6 SB. I think 'Bert will continue hitting. Most baseball people think he's a .300-.310 career hitter. I put him in the .285-.300 range. His RBI numbers will slip as he probably will not be hitting behind DeJesus' hefty OBP and rather Ankiel's sluggish OBP.

6. Alex Gordon- .265/.345/.450, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB. A season like this would have us all optimistic that he could really be a special player, but time is running out on him. I hope his real numbers are better than this projection.

7. DH Josh Fields*- .242/.320/.432, 20 HR, 53 RBI, 2 SB. I think we could see him succeed in a new environment.

8. SS Yuniesky Betancourt- .265/.289/.376, 4 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB. I am actually thinking about taking these numbers to Vegas and seeing what the odds are. I'm guessing they're less than 50:1.

9. C Jason Kendall- .245/.325/.320, 0 HR, 37 RBI, 5 SB. Pretty weak way to round out a lineup, but I doubt we see better numbers than this. Hopefully his defense behind home plate will lead to more wins and he won't strike out in big situations.

*I did not put Jose Guillen's projection up because I believe he will play in very few games this year.

Bench

1B/DH Kila Ka'aihue- .238/.356/.420, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 2 SB. This may be a pipedream, but I think that the Kila Whale (nice, right?) deserves his shot. Another year in AAA turns him into Justin Huber 2.0. He needs a chance to develop.

C/DH Brayan Pena- .276/.330/.390, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 0 SB. I like him alot. I really hope that he gets a real look in Spring Training. My hope is 50 starts for him, especially if Kendall breaks down.

SS/2B/OF/3B/DH/Janitor Willie Bloomquist- .260/.307/.325, 3 HR, 36 RBI, 15 SB. Willie is a valuable player, if he only starts every fourth day.

OF Brian Anderson- .278/.350/.385, 3 HR, 27 RBI, 12 SB. He really broke out in Boston in 21 games where he hit .280. If he doesn't impress in Spring Training, then he has options left.

Bullpen

RHP Kyle Farnsworth- 4.75 ERA, 35 K, 35 IP. MOP UP DUTY ONLY. MOP UP DUTY ONLY. MOP UP DUTY ONLY

RHP Juan Cruz- 3.67 ERA, 67 K, 57 IP. I think he struggled last year due to injury. I could be wrong and he could be yet another NL pitcher who can't hack it in the Junior Circuit.

LHP Edgar Osuna- 4.13 ERA, 27 K, 40 IP. Our Rule-5 pick could surprise us this year and provide decent lefty help.

RHP Robinson Tejeda- 3.06 ERA, 56 K, 60 IP. I think he will be our primary set up man. I also think that he will challenge Kyle Davies for the 5th starter in Spring Training.

RHP Matt Herges- 4.67 ERA, 28 K, 35 IP. Another guy who will be a mop up man.

LHP Dusty Hughes- 3.98 ERA, 37 K, 48 IP. For a bullpen that needs incredible help from a lefty, Dusty could be a nice surprise.

Closer Joakim Soria- 43 Saves, 2.06 ERA, 70 K, 69 IP. I have a feeling it will be another All Star type season for the Mexicutioner.

There you have it.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

2003 vs. 2010

Remember that year? Magical. So I got to thinking, was that 2003 team better than what we will put on the field in 2010? I put the two head to head to see what came out of it. This is purely based "on-paper", I only used simple baseball stats like ERA, Batting average, Home Runs and RBIs in my comparisons. I also used the 25 man roster that the Royals currently have on their website as my basis for the 2010 roster.

Starting Rotation

2003: Darrel May, Chris George, Runelvys Hernandez, Kyle Snyder, Jose Lima
2010: Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies

Edge: 2010.
Two words. One name. Zack Greinke.

First Base


2003: Ken Harvey
2010: Billy Butler

Edge: 2010.
Butler has joined hall of famers with the stats he put up last year as a 23 year old. He is the top offensive player on the team and his ceiling is nearly unlimited. Harvey had two solid years for the Royals, but after his All-Star appearance in 2004, he started regressing...violently.

Second Base

2003: Desi Relaford
2010: Alberto Callaspo

Edge: 2010. AC had one of the best offensive seasons for a second baseman in Royals history, but struggled on the defensive side of the ball. Relaford was a journeyman who had a career year in KC, but didn't put up the offensive numbers to best Callaspo.

Shortstop

2003: Angel Berroa
2010: Yuniesky Betancourt

Edge: 2003. Berroa came from nowhere and became a fan favorite in his Rookie of the Year season, while Betancourt has become a running joke amongst Royals fans.

Third Base

2003: Joe Randa
2010: Alex Gordon

Edge: 2003. Randa gets the nod over Gordon because Randa stayed healthy and played top notch defense at the hot corner.

Right Field

2003: Aaron Guiel
2010: David DeJesus

Edge: 2010. DeJesus is a good player, year in and year out. Guiel lacked consistency and was often injured.

Center Field

2003: Carlos Beltran
2010: Rick Ankiel

Edge: 2003. Beltran is a 5-tool all star. Ankiel is good at a few things, but can't match up with Beltran in any category.

Left Field

2003: Raul Ibanez
2010: Scott Podsednik

Edge: 2003. Raul had a career resurgence in KC and became one of the best hitters in baseball in the last decade. Podsednik has been knocked around the league and never established any consistency.

Catcher

2003: Brent Mayne
2010: Jason Kendall

Edge: 2010. Basically a contest between two monkeys flinging poop at each other. Kendall has the better track record than Mayne.

Designated Hitter

2003: Mike Sweeney
2010: Jose Guillen

Edge: 2003. Sweeney was just two years removed from setting the club record for RBIs with 144 when he started breaking down in 2002. Guillen has one thing in common with Sweeney in the fact that he can't stay healthy.

Bench

2003: Michael Tucker, Mike DiFelice, Carlos Febles, Dee Brown
2010: Josh Fields, Willie Bloomquist, Brayan Pena, Chris Getz

Edge: 2010. The defensive versatility of Bloomquist and Getz, coupled with the offensive potential of Fields and Pena gives 2010 a slightly better outlook than the soft hitting bench of the 2003 team.

Bullpen

2003: Jeremy Affeldt, D.J. Carrasco, Kris Wilson, Jason Grimsley, Al Levine, Curtis Leskanic, Miguel Ascencio, Sean Lowe
2010: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Robinson Tejeda, Matt Herges, Edgar Osuna, Carlos Rosa, Anthony Lerew, Roman Colon

Edge: 2003. Once again, another poop flinging contest. '03 gets the edge because of the solid help that was provided by Curtis Leskanic and Al Levine late in the season. Also Jeremy Affeldt has turned into a decent reliever in the NL.

Closer

2003: Mike MacDougal
2010: Joakim Soria

Edge: 2010. Both former All-Stars, yet the Mexicutioner beats out Mac based on the fact that Soria is a dominant pitcher, whereas MacDougal was more lucky than good in 2003.

Manager

2003: Tony Pena
2010: Trey Hillman

Edge: 2003. Tony Pena won manager of the year after taking a team full of replacement players and a merry-go-round of starting pitchers to the brink of a division title. Trey Hillman has failed to inspire his players the same way that Pena did in 2003.

Overall

Edge: 2003. The '03 team had so much talent offensively, yet zero starting pitching and little help out of the bullpen. It is my belief that that team could have competed for and possibly won the division if it had a more solid and consistent rotation. The defense was about as good as we have seen this decade with Beltran, Randa and Ibanez. This 2010 team is filled with holes and it is hard to see Trey Hillman doing what Tony Pena did in 2003 with essentially a polar opposite roster. Pena had a team loaded with offensive talent, yet no starting pitching and a bullpen that routinely gave up leads. Hillman has a pretty good starting rotation, yet very little help on the offensive side of the diamond. With an All-Star caliber closer, Cy Young winner and a first baseman that has put up comparable numbers to hall of famers, Hillman has yet to prove that he can inspire a team to win on a consistent basis.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

All-Decade Worst Plays

Its been a pretty slow week on the Royals front, no big trades, although a few rumblings, but nothing meaty enough to write about. That being said, to take a phrase from Lou Brown of "Major League", how about I give you a nice big **** burger to eat? Big thanks to Jeff Parker at Royally Speaking for being my muse on this one.

Terrence Long and Chip Ambres watch a fly ball drop between them in a game in 2005.
The Royals had already given up a big lead in the inning when a fly ball was hit to medium left centerfield. Outfielders Ambres and Long settled under the ball, looked at eachother, took one step towards the dugout simultaneously and then allowed the ball to drop between them.

Ken Harvey hits Jason Grimsley in the face with a throw to home in 2004. A slow dribbler caught Harvey and Grimsley in between the pitcher's mound and 1st base, as Harvey attempted to catch the runner from third at the plate, Grimsley's face ran into Harvey's arm and both laid on the ground, writhing in pain, as the runners advanced.

Kerry Robinson tries to make "Web Gems" in 2006. Probably the worst defensive play I have ever seen. CF Kerry Robinson races back to the wall in pursuit of a high fly ball to right center, he leaps to make a circus catch at the wall and....the ball falls 10 feet in front of him.

Royals Bullpen implodes and gives up 8-3 lead with two outs in the bottom of the 9th. The 2008 Royals were about to end a long losing streak against the Minnesota Twins as things became unraveled in the ninth. Joel Peralta was brought on to stop the bleeding as All-Star Closer Joakim Soria sat in the bullpen. Peralta gave up a go ahead homerun to Craig Monroe and the Twins went on to win the game and the Royals went on to lose 12 in a row.

Juan Gonzalez comes up limp. He literally took one step out of the batters box in a game against Oakland in 2004, and went down like a ton of bricks before even getting half way to first base. After playing in 33 games for the Royals, Juan-Gone spent the rest of the 2004 campaign on the DL.

Runelvys I. After being shaken off several times in the previous inning, Catcher John Buck confronts Runelvys Hernandez in the Royals dugout and the two begin fighting. Teammates try to break up the bald Buck and burly Hernandez. Hilarity ensues.

Runelvys II. After yet another Runelvys Hernandez curveball goes wild in a game vs. Detroit in 2005, nicking Tigers SS Carlos Guillen on the toe, Guillen argued that the ball had hit his foot and he should be awarded 1st base. The umpire declined the protest and play resumed. With the next pitch, Hernandez hurled a fastball at Guillen's head, careening off of his helmet and sending him to the ground. Hernandez then storms towards Guillen, who had been collecting himself on the ground. Benches clear, Elvys ejected. Hilarity ensues.

Runelvys II-b. After the benches had cleared, seemingly harmless relief pitcher Jeremy Affeldt was charged by current Royal, Kyle Farnsworth. Farnsworth then form tackled Affeldt to the ground and began whaling away at Affeldt's head as the teams tried to pry the two apart.

Thats my list, whats yours?

Preview for Royals Kingdom Radio: 1/31

Where has the optimism gone?

Join myself and James Puester as we talk about where all the optimism surrounding the Royals has gone. In the past few years, the Royals have had positive talk surrounding them entering Spring Training. Last year, a few media outlets picked them to win the division, and fans were wondering if it was the year the Royals finally turned the corner.

We'll break this down and more, tomorrow at 4pm only on 1140 KCXL and 1160 KCTO. We might even take some calls to get what your thoughts are on the upcoming season.

*Also an apology for not posting anything new this week! Pretty slow Royals week wouldn't you say?

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Preview for Royals Kingdom Radio 1/24/2010

Big show lined up for tomorrow! We'll have Daniel Shoptaw from the Baseball Bloggers Alliance and C70 at the Bat, a St. Louis Cardinals blog. We'll have his thoughts on Rick Ankiel and we'll talk about the Baseball Bloggers Alliance.

We'll focus on what the Ankiel deal means for the Royals this year and possibly in the future.

Tune in tomorrow at 4pm only on 1140 KCXL! If you aren't in the listening area, stream it on your computer or iPhone here

After Ankiel, What's Next for KC?

At first there was outrage. Then optimism. Then delusion. Finally, acceptance. Acceptance of the fact that Rick Ankiel will be a Kansas City Royal.

Once again, a move that I am ok with. Ankiel improves our outfield defense. He provides a measure of protection for Billy Butler if his power returns and he is able to stay healthy. His contract is also a very club-friendly deal. His $3.25 million dollar salary is much cheaper than what his agent, Scott Boras was asking for (3 years/$15 million). Included in the deal is a mutual option for 2011 worth $6 million.

Rick Ankiel is not young. He will be 30 when the season starts and 31 when it is over. I'm not sure what the Royals plans are, but I'm sure we are about to see a decent sized roster shakeup.

First off, our outfield is now pretty crowded as Ankiel joins David DeJesus, Scott Podsednik, Brian Anderson, Mitch Maier, Jose Guillen and possibly Josh Fields.

Of that group, Anderson has minor league options left. Maier is out of options and it is possible that Maier will move on after spring training.

So that leaves us with DeJesus, Scotty Pods, Guillen and Ankiel.

I doubt that any of those will accept a role as a 4th OF.

DeJesus has the most trade value out the group, but his production is going to be greatly needed in this lineup. Guillen has little to no trade value as he probably will start the year on the DL. Podsednik has all but been guaranteed a starting spot. Ankiel is too good of a defender to sit on the bench.

I think it is obvious what needs to be done. Jose Guillen needs to be released.

The $12 million dollars is already spent. If you trade Guillen, you will have to eat nearly all of his salary. He is hurt, nobody wants him. You have to designate him for assignment and let him explore his options elsewhere. That leaves you with a quick, defensively sound outfield that is suited for Kauffman Stadium.

Now, if Dayton Moore goes with the not-so-obvious move of trading DeJesus, there are several areas that need improvement on this ballclub. A trade for DeJesus would have to garner a young lefty pitcher and one or two young infield prospects, maybe even a catcher.

If DDJ is traded, this opens up a big competition for the final OF spot between Maier, Anderson and minor leaguers Jordan Parraz (hit .348 in AA and AAA in '09) and David Lough (hit .325 also in AA and AAA in '09).

With either move, it could possibly benefit the Royals. If Guillen is released, I am positive it would benefit the club (see my post below as to why). As for a trade for DeJesus, it would pain me to see him go, but if the return is substantial, then I won't feel too awful about it.