Monday, February 7, 2011

Royals Wild Cards for 2011: #4 Kila Ka'aihue

Big questions surround the big Hawaiian entering 2011. Is he really the real deal? Can he keep mashing at the MLB level, or is he just another AAAA masher who can't hack it in the bigs?

Kila is undoubtedly a fan favorite. The chips are definitely stacked against him. A 15th round pick out of high school whose path to the big leagues has been blocked by wet mops like Ross Gload and Jose Guillen. It's safe to say that the fans are in his corner.

Kila had his struggles last year, but he came on late, hitting .261/.367/.511 in the final 30 games of 2010. Also, six of his eight homers came in the last 30 games of the season. Kila's BABIP was also .297, a sign that he was hitting the ball hard.

Of course, one can point to the fact that this all came in September (let the Ryan Shealy comps come rolling in). But I think there's more to the story when it comes to Kila.

Kila had multi-hit games against (ERA in parenthesis) Nick Blackburn (5.42), Fausto Carmona (3.77), Gio Gonzalez (3.23), Edwin Jackson (4.47), Rick Porcello (4.92) and Tommy Hunter (3.73). Those guys aren't your run-of-the-mill September call ups.

To me, Kila's early MLB numbers combined with his minor league stats scream "Carlos Pena 2.0". Unfortunately, Pena bounced around until being uncovered by the Tampa Bay Rays a few years ago. If the Royals are as committed to OBP as they say they are, Kila should be a fixture in this lineup for several years.

But much like Wilson Betemit and Mike Aviles, Kila is in a precarious spot, as he is occupying a position that will likely be taken over by a prospect in the very near future. Eric Hosmer will likely be with the club sometime either this season or next season, giving Kila very little time to prove that he has a spot on this team.

Most people will ask for Kila to be traded when Hosmer is ready to make his big league debut, but Kila can also force the Royals hand by turning in a dynamite first half. He's under team control for the next five seasons. As a 27-year old, Kila's contract will be Royals' property all the way through his prime.

PECOTA has Kila projected at 25 home runs and a .387 OBP. I'm sorry, but that's not something you just trade away, even to make room for an uber-prospect like Hosmer. Plus, I don't think the market for Kila would even be good enough to warrant a trade. The point is, Kila's value goes beyond home runs and on-base percentage. I'm not a scout, but I think Hosmer would transition to the outfield very easily. Of course, Hosmer, much like a Lance Berkman, has a future at first base, but in the mean time, could be a very serviceable and possibly even good major league outfielder while Kila holds down first base and DH duties for the next few seasons.

The worry on my end is that Kila has placed a ton of pressure on himself to perform. I can't blame him. This is his shot. He's got one chance to impress. Of course, he might get one down the road, but if he wants to be a big leaguer, this year is critical for him. The Royals had shown little faith in him up until last summer. But if Kila is mashing at the K on a 30+ HR pace come July and Eric Hosmer is banging the door down in Omaha, the Royals have a choice.

My belief is that Kila will be kept around, his contract is incredibly valuable. It seems that the Royals are very careful with service time. If Kila lives up to the promise, he is an extremely valuable player.

Royals Wild Cards for 2011: #5 Wilson Betemit

This is something I did last year in the weeks leading up to Spring Training. I hope you enjoyed reading them as much as I did writing them. Enjoy.

Wilson Betemit burst on to the 25-man roster late last May and hit the ground running. Betemit finished the season hitting just below .300 while getting on-base at a .378 clip. Not too shabby for a guy who came to the Royals' 2010 Spring Training on a minor league deal. Betemit slugged an outstanding .511 and finished the year with a 141 OPS+.

Of course, this was only in 315 plate attempts, but that's more than a small sample size. Over 600 PAs (roughly a full season of work at the plate), Betemit would have finished with 26 HR, 86 RBIs and 66 XBH if he stayed on his pace. Fangraphs had Betemit at 1.3 WAR for 2010. That's pretty good for a half-season's work. Betemit's 74:36 K:BB ratio also shows that his numbers in 2010 weren't necessarily a fluke.

Looking ahead to 2011, it could be likely that Betemit could continue his success in Royal Blue. Betemit was the top ranked prospect in the Atlanta Braves' system (go figure) in 2001 and 2002. This is a move by Dayton Moore that has gone overlooked in my mind. Betemit has never been a full-time player in his career, but he certainly thrived when he was given the chance to play every day in 2010.

The reason Betemit is a wild card is due to the fact that he apparently has no position on this team. He filled in well as a third baseman last year, but it is obvious that the Royals are focusing on defense this year (see signing of Feliz, Pedro). Not a good thing for Betemit, who posted a rough .929 fielding percentage and a -10.4 UZR last year at the hot corner.

The Royals seem to be leaning in favor of Mike Aviles at third. It is unfortunate, as Billy Butler and Kila Ka'aihue seem to be the everyday 1B/DH combo, leaving Betemit without a position on the field.

The outfield isn't an option for Betemit either, as the spacious Kauffman Stadium outfield will likely be occupied by a combination of Jeff Francouer, Melky Cabrera, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Gregor Blanco and/or Mitch Maier, who are all superior defenders than Betemit.

The problem for Betemit is not only in his defense, but also a soon-to-be crowded 25-man roster. Mike Moustakas is breathing dragon breath down Aviles and Betemit's necks at third base, and could very well kick either player to the bench come April, May or June.

The defined role for Betemit will be a player who comes off the bench in the late innings, to spell the paper thin bats of starters Chris Getz, Lucas May/Brayan Pena and Alcides Escobar. He will definitely be valuable if Butler, Aviles or Ka'aihue hit the DL early in the season. If Betemit continues to hit off the bench the way he did in 2010, then the Royals will definitely have one of the better bench power bats in the AL Central. But if Betemit wins a starting job in Surprise, then we will definitely get to see whether or not his 2010 punch will carry into 2011 and beyond.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Billy Butler doesn't know any good places to eat in Idaho Falls, plus Dayton Moore!

What can I say that hasn't already been said by my compatriots in the Royals' blogosphere? The Royals Digital Digest was an amazing experience. I sat in a room with Dayton Moore, Ned Yost, Billy Butler and Jeff Francouer and got to ask them questions. It was surreal. From Dayton Moore's filibustering to Minda Haas' excellent photography, the experience was one I won't soon forget.

On to the meat and potatoes of Digital Digest. I'll be honest, I knew Dayton Moore was going to give long, tangenty (?) interviews, so I hopped right in. I asked Dayton something that has been weighing on my mind ever since Dayton Moore took over. What kind of shitshow did he inherit? His answer, despite some off topic ramblings and some self-imposed "atta boys", was the one I was looking for.

"You know Brian, I knew there was going to be a lot of work to do, I knew it was going to be a tremendous challenge"

A. How cool is it that he called me by my first name? And B. Duh. Dayton had to know what kind of mess he was getting himself into. The fact that he even took this job makes me respect him even more.

"We knew that if we put a group together that trusted each other that we could motivate ownership to follow our plan"

Trust seems to be important to this current regime. It seems that everyone is on the same page that works in the baseball operations department at One Royal Way. Dayton also made it a point that every one in the front office is a "good person" so to speak. But then again, just because you can quote every verse in Psalms doesn't mean you can build a championship caliber team.

"We knew there would be difficulties with the market."

I'm not trying to stir the pot here, but this made me wonder if the Royals are going to continue using the brutal small market argument if "The Process" doesn't work out. I don't want to say he was giving himself an out with this part of his answer, but it makes me wonder. Now, to be fair, KC is not Dallas, Chicago or Los Angeles, but there are deep pockets in this ownership. I hate pointing the finger to all of our problems to the Glass family's frugality, but if a big money free agent is what will push "The Process" over the top, then I'm hoping they are ready to spend...big.

"If you would have told me four years ago that our farm system would be where it is and we would have this much flexibility in our payroll..."

I would still guarantee you that Jeff Francouer would be a Royal.

"It was scary"

Once again, the respect I have for Dayton Moore for taking this job is immense. DM went toe-to-toe with David Glass and won. This was a franchise hanging on by a string when Dayton took over. Every year, people call for him to be fired. I don't think "It was scary" was the real response. I would be willing to bet that this job still scares the bejeezus out of Dayton Moore.

"It takes awhile to do it that way (through the draft) and you have to hit on guys"

Hit on guys? Haha, just kidding. Man, have we hit.

"There are 26 clubs that have had more picks than us in the first 100 and we've been able to build our farm system (through that)"

This gives me so much hope for the future. We've been able to build a better farm system than any other team in baseball with LESS top 100 draft picks than most MLB teams. I have more than enough confidence that our pipeline will continue to produce once Mission: 2012 has commenced.

"You have to produce sooner or later, or else the fan base grows impatient"

[sarcasmfont]Yeah that's great and all, but when the hell are we going to start winning?[/sarcasmfont]

"If it hadn't been broken for a long time, we wouldn't have been here. If the Glass family would have felt the organization was close, he wouldn't have made a change."

Another reason why blaming the Glass family for the Royals' struggles is stupid. David Glass saw the pitchforks and torches in the distance and made a change.

This is just the first installment of my Digital Digest breakdown. More from Ned Yost (Tim Collins is a baby?), Billy Butler and the man, the myth Jeff Francouer will come as the weekend goes along.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Are you ready for some baseball?

Kind of? The attitude surrounding the Royals is the usual. The general malaise around the fanbase remains and there is little to no hope for the upcoming 2011 season. Yeah, that sucks. But what I've been noticing lately is there isn't as much snark and sarcasm with the fans. That's a good thing.

I think people are digging in for a tough run here in 2011. It's going to be brutal, but I think the clouds will clear when all is said and done. There is about a 1% chance of this team winning over 80 games and I'm being generous with that 1%. But that shouldn't discourage you from still caring about this team. I care. I care a lot. This is going to be a fun season. Of course, I'll probably retract that statement when the first 7+ game losing streak shows up or whenever the Royals PR department mentions Billy Butler's consecutive hits in a series streak in June, but this team is going through a metamorphosis.

Actually, metamorphosis is the wrong word. This team is going through a detox. A detox of old, mediocre veterans. A detox from the old Royals. We've got a roster full of guys who haven't reached their potential, not passed it. Of course, some of them will never reach it, but there are some interesting things to point out here. The Royals have guys who were once big time prospects. Francouer, Cabrera, Getz, Betemit, Gordon, Hochevar, etc. Now, is Kauffman Stadium going to be the house of last chances like it is every summer? Not really. I think there is a market for players like Francouer, Betemit, Gordon and Hochevar. Getz and Cabrera, not so much. Jeffy Lockerroom is always on the move at the deadline because well, lets face it, there's always someone dumb enough to take him. Frenchy played really well in the playoffs last year and while he may not have much value with the saber-heads, there are apparently teams who would like to have Jeffy Clubhouse during a pennant race.

But this whole post isn't going to be about Jeff Francouer (yeah, you don't have to close this window quite yet). There are several exciting things going on down on the farm if you're just crawling out of your hole that you dug in 2007. Of course, we've got Moustakas and Hosmer and Dwyer and Montgomery knocking on the door this year, but dive a little deeper into our farm system and you'll see that right behind these guys are yet ANOTHER wave of potential MiLB supernovas like Mous and Hosmer. There's Cheslor Cuthbert, who according to Greg Schaum, has gotten comparisons to Gary Sheffield. There's Robinson Yambati who posted a Soria-esque 1.161 WHIP in rookie ball. Yordano Ventura might throws in the upper 90s despite a 5'11" frame and has showcased awesome control.

It's just a really exciting time to be a Royals fan. It sounds stupid, but to quote Dewey Cox from "Walk Hard": "This is an exciting time. I don't know what it is, but there's something going on here."

That's how I feel. There's something happening. A building crescendo towards something great. Now, it's time for it to start happening.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

The Kansas City Royals: Revolutionary?

This week the Royals announced what I thought was a very cool promotion. The Royals are looking for a blogger/social media hound/internet user to be a "fan correspondent" at the upcoming Royals FanFest. I can't remember the last time the Royals reached out to fans who also happen to be opinion makers on social media outlets like Twitter, Facebook and blogs.

As of Tuesday afternoon, many Royals bloggers were talking about how this could be a first step to the Royals perhaps giving media credentials to bloggers. Of course, this is a slippery slope. What exactly qualifies a blogger to get credentialed? Do you have to write for a large media outlet? Do you need a journalism degree?

The Royals have a golden chance to be revolutionary here. The internet is still a new, exciting network of tubes and chutes and flying envelopes that carry your emails through the interwebs to most MLB executives.

Close your eyes, Royals front office/media relations big wigs. Now, imagine the Royals blogosphere as a giant bazaar where people are talking about your product. Now sure, most of it is bad, but people are talking about it. This bazaar is accessible to everyone in the world. Millions of Royals fans can find it and it isn't very hard. Now imagine where these people will go after they leave the bazaar? They'll probably go buy what the people in the bazaar are selling, ultimately, the super awesome castle that lies beyond the yelling and shouting of the bazaar. Oh, it's beautiful! Look at those fountains!

Well guess what? Those yelling and screaming shopkeepers are the bloggers and the bazaar is the internet. They promote your product for free. They drive people to your place of business. What every blogger writes about is the same thing. Ultimately, every blogger is selling people on the Royals. Saying, "hey, we care enough about this team that we write about it".

As far as I know, only the Mets, Padres and Phillies allow bloggers in the press box. I would argue that the Royals have the best bloggers of any team in baseball. Some of the writing talent on display in the Royals blogosphere is outstanding. The Royals would be taking a risk, sure. But think of how awesome it would be to see Will McDonald go toe-to-toe with Ned Yost after he bats Chris Getz third for the second time in a month? How about a Minda Haas sit down with Dayton Moore? It would be awesome.

So the ball is in the Royals' court. Let's see what happens. But this is a big step.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Hello from the Winter Meetings

Haha, just kidding. I'm not in Orlando.

How cool would it be if I was though? I could be tweeting stuff about Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke and which absurdly moronic move John Mozeliak will make next. But I'm not. Instead, I'm tweeting false information about Frank White's future with the Royals. I would like to say from the bottom of my heart, my bad. I'll just stick to what I do best, which is being a fan and writing about my favorite baseball team, The Kansas City Royals...ugh.

Obviously, the biggest non-Chiefs/Josh Selby news going around in Kansas City right now are the Zack Greinke trade rumors. From what I can gather, Texas, Toronto and Milwaukee are the three most likely destinations for Zack. Texas probably seems to be the leader of the pack right now, as they can offer the best prospects in return for Greinke. Toronto, not so much. As for Milwaukee, I heard they were trying to include Ryan Braun in a straight swap for Greinke. No thanks. We're trying to build for the future. I would love to have Ryan Braun on the Royals, don't get me wrong, just not in a straight up deal, where we plug up one gaping hole (true middle of the order power) and open up another (our sinkhole of a starting rotation outside of Greinke).

I'll be honest, I'm really torn on this deal. Greinke has reportedly said he will "go anywhere". Which essentially is code for "I'd rather go through my first three years in the league than spend another two seasons with this team". That's great that Greinke would go anywhere, as I'm sure every team in baseball would love to have a 27-year old phenom under contract for the next two years at a market friendly rate (Greinke is slated to make ~$13 million in each of the next two years). And that's great, because this gives the Royals the opportunity to be selective. And boy, are they being selective. Bob Dutton reported early today that the talks between the Royals and Rangers fizzled out after Dayton Moore was not impressed with the Rangers package they were offering for the 2009 Cy Young Award winner.

This is encouraging news. Dayton Moore is not going to be bullied into a deal. He has a platinum chip in Greinke and he knows it. I'm sensing that Moore is walking around Walt Disney World saying "Yeah, I know he said he wants out of KC, but guess what, it's gonna take your entire farm system's lifeblood to get him outta here. And if your offer isn't good enough, we'll just take our two 2013 first round compensatory picks after he leaves and have the best team in the AL Central AND the best farm team in baseball. So SUCK ON THAT JON DANIELS."

The Royals can't afford to be shortchanged on this trade if it happens. The Beltran trade is still fresh in this fanbase's minds and it is quite obvious that wound has not completely healed, although there is one remnant remaining. A trade for Greinke needs to net us a HAUL. I'm talking a big time HAUL. That is why I somewhat want this trade to happen. I hate terrible baseball, I really do, but if we can absolutely clear out someone's upper minors in this trade, then hey, I'll deal.

But here's why I don't want to see Greinke traded. I want to see him win here. Zack has said before that he likes it in KC. I just don't think that he likes being in KC with the Royals. He gained some big time fan support after signing a 4 year deal, guaranteeing he would be in Royal blue for another four years after a great 2008 campaign. He followed that deal up with the greatest pitching season in club history. He's a fan favorite. He sells tickets.

But guess what else sells tickets? Winning. And let's face it, this team probably isn't going to be doing much of that this coming summer. It sucks to say that in December, but that may just be the cold hard truth. And I'll never be one of those fans who roots for Zack to win somewhere else, I'll just be rooting that the guys we got for Zack are the ones who take us to October.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Kansas City

I have lived here my entire life. It isn't much. It isn't little. It is perfect. It is right in the middle. 2 million people who share the same hopes, dreams and sports teams. We love the Chiefs. We love the Royals. We hate Kansas. We hate Missouri. We applaud K-State. It's a great town. Each summer or fall or winter or spring, some of us move away. Some of us stay away. But most of us come back. Kansas City is always a special place. Like that lakehouse you used to visit with your family in your youth. Quiet, simple, vast, drenched in history and memories, but comes with just about everything you need.

It is a great city to live in. People come back when they move away, even if it is just for a weekend of Chiefs tailgating or Jayhawk basketball. They always come back. I have plenty of friends who had the typical "big fish in a little pond" syndrome that usually accompanies the fast evolving brain of those who suffer from quarter life crises. The need to get out and explore the world seems like an enticing proposition. But they all come back.

Three weeks ago, one of them came back. My friend Brian Euston came back to a city full of opportunity. A city full of hope with endless dreams and plenty of good-natured people willing to give a stranger a chance.

So Brian came back to Kansas City. Returning from a long trip to Europe. He was greeted by the people and friends who knew him the best. Friends that had lasted him a lifetime. All the way from Catholic grade school all the way through Catholic high school. Those relationships were built to last a lifetime. Us Brookside kids are a different breed. We like each other. We love each other. We respect each other. We are good people. We celebrate...hard. We have a zest for life that some may misconstrue as reckless or irresponsible, but trust me, we only mean well.

So here we are. Our friend is gone. In a city that so many people come back to, Brian has been shut out. Only the memory remains. And for what? We don't truly know. What I know, is that Brian and our city deserve better. Brian may have been taken away, but his lesson remains.

We grew up in great neighborhoods, with great families, great friends. All the perfect recipe for a fantastic community. Our entire lives, we were taught to do things for the "greater glory of God". We owe it to Brian Euston to carry on the very lessons we have been taught since our youth.

I could stand on my soap box and call for answers and point my fingers, but that isn't my job. My job as a friend of Brian Euston's is to carry on his legacy. To ensure that these things don't happen to the people of our community anymore. The reach of our community is not just limited to that tiny awesome piece of God's creation from the Plaza to Waldo, but everywhere in this world and more importantly, Kansas City. This story cannot be written with vengeance, malevolence or anger. It must end with compassion, sympathy and grace.

Understand that we are in dark times. But the night truly is darkest before the dawn. I'm sure Brian was a big fan of the Dark Knight, so, don't worry, I gotcha buddy. There are good people left in this world. Don't let yourself get lost in the shuffle. Alone we are one, together we are many. Because we always come back. No matter what, we come back.

For Brian Euston. Rock State, big guy. Oh yeah, the Chiefs are 5-2. Yeah, I know...THE CHIEFS