Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Royals West Coast swing nothing worth writing home for

This season has spiraled out of control. You shouldn't be surprised. We've seen it before. Season is lost. Yost effect has worn off. Orioles are 8-1 under Buck Showalter. Kila struggling at the dish. Life ain't so grand here in KC.

There really isn't much else to say besides that this team isn't very good. We have a revolving door of crappy leadoff hitters currently being shuffled through the lineup. Getz, Bloomquist and newly acquired, shiny, former Brave Gregor Blanco have all failed (predictably) to make their mark at the top of the Royals lineup. Meanwhile, Mitch "MITCH" Maier and his .343 OBP are languishing in the bottom of the order on most days, while Billy Butler hits with no one on base.

Yuniesky Betancourt, who routinely hits ninth and sucks no matter where you put him in the lineup, is SECOND to Billy Butler for the team lead in RBIs with 48 in 105 PAs. Doesn't that say something about lineup construction, when a guy who hits (I'm seriously laughing as I type this. Look at the BA/OBP split and you'll understand why) .240/.241/.346/.587 with runners in scoring position is SECOND on the team in RBIs?

Yes, as you can see here, our valiant shortstop hits .240 with RISP and has 48 RBIs. How is that possible? It's terrible. Truly a tragedy of lineup construction.

You CAN'T get on Billy Butler's case about his "lack" of run "production". He's doing just fine with runners in scoring position: .314/.419/.438/.857 in 129 PAs.

My brain can't wrap itself around this. Butler has a batting average with RISP WORLDS ahead of Yuni, 24 more plate attempts than Yuni with RISP, better SLG% with RISP than Yuni.

I don't get it. How is this happening? How does a player as awful as Betancourt (congrats on having a kid by the way) with RISP have almost just as many RBIs as Butler does?

This is a paradox. It really is. If you think you can wrap your mind around it, then let me know. I'm having trouble understanding this. Are the Royals really so awful that their best hitter, no matter how well he hits when runners are on 2nd and 3rd, they just can't score runs?

I'm at a loss. Looking over these stats frustrates me even more. It's like once runners get to scoring position with Butler on, the baseball universe gets fuzzy. It's unreal. I think the simple fact is that maybe Butler isn't getting as many "true" chances with RISP. I can't remember the last time we had runners at 2nd and 3rd with Billy coming up.

Maybe the case isn't the fact that there aren't runners in scoring position when Butler comes up. Maybe there just aren't runners ON BASE. Butler has 234 PAs with runners on. He's batting .327/.406/.454/.860 with runners on. Yuni? His line is a bit better than his RISP line at .290/.308/.443/.751 with runners on in 180 PAs. He's batting ninth. Butler gets more PAs than Yuni because he's higher in the lineup.

So move Yuni up in the order? God no. Move Mitch Maier, Mike Aviles and those who are in the bottom of the order to the top of the order. Get them in front of Billy. Getz, Bloomquist and Blanco are not the answers. Kendall needs to be out of the two spot. Put him ninth. Put him on the bench. Put him on a plane to Omaha for all I care, but for the sake of Royals' fans sanity, stop batting him second. I would put money on the fact that the reasons for Billy's lack of RBIs can be traced back to Jason Kendall batting second. Book it.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Quick Thoughts on the end of the Guillen era, Greinke's words, and the emancipation of Ed Lucas

So we FINALLY released Jose Guillen. This move came about two months too late as Guillen has been horrendous down the stretch and pretty much for the last two seasons. Don't let the RBIs fool you (tip: never let RBIs fool you. Worst stat ever), Jose has been just above replacement level since he became a Royal. He trumps Juan Gonzalez, Mark and Storm Davis as the worst Royals free agent acquisition of all time. Yes, he does. By far. He was a clubhouse cancer, no matter how people tried to spin it. He wasn't misunderstood, or wanted to win, or was a passionate leader. He was a malcontent who couldn't back up his mindless ranting on the baseball diamond. Good riddance, Jose. Good luck finding someone who will give you more than a minor league deal as well. Say hi to Trey in Japan for us.

Zack Greinke opened his mouth again. Seems like Zack isn't too happy with the current state of the Royals. I'm happy someone was vocal, but Zack was pretty harsh on the Royals. I hope this isn't pointing to a return of Zack's psychological issues or anything like that. He was sounding an awful like he did back in 2006 in Bob Dutton's article. Hopefully it isn't too serious and it was just Zack venting his frustrations, which at this point in his career, he has certainly earned.

Anyways, these are some interesting days we're heading for. The Royals brass seems to be committed to a true youth movement. That being said, I'm joining Greg Schaum's fight for the Royals to call up Omaha 3B Ed Lucas, who has been tearing the cover off the ball in AAA this year. I would like to see him get a shot at third and see Betemit back on the bench as a late inning pinch hitter.

Enjoy the rest of Shark Week.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

A Victorious Weekend

So I'm writing this as Chris Getz makes a pretty sweet diving play to save the final game of the Baltimore series and cap off a truly victorious weekend for our boys. From nail biters on the field, to hair pulling as 3pm came and went yesterday, this was a fun weekend to be a Royals fan. Rick Ankiel, who came on strong after being reactivated from the DL was traded along with Kyle Farnsworth to the Braves. The Royals got stronger with the trade. Not necessarily better, but stronger.

We got a center fielder in Gregor Blanco(who joins Wil Myers in the we-decide-to-leave-off-the-last-letter-of-our-first-name club), who probably profiles as a 4th outfielder/back up leadoff man in the future. A major league ready reliever Jesse Chavez, who isn't anything special, but is still young and cheap. And we got a 21 year old, 5'7", 155 lb. lefty with nasty stuff. I've seen multiple people say that if Tim Collins was six inches taller, he would be the top relieving prospect in baseball. Yeah, we got this kid for Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth.

And now for something that has never been said on this blog: GOOD JOB, DAYTON MOORE.

Of course, the Royals still have some work to do. Jose Guillen remains a Royal (at the point of the publication of this post). I fully expect him to be released before the team boards the plane for Oakland.

The Royals extended Ned Yost for two years. This is a positive because now Dayton Moore can focus on how to make this team better heading in to 2011 instead of conducting a managerial search and accidentally stumbling upon Trey Hillman 2.0. Yost is a major league manager with a pretty good track record with young teams. He will be the stable master as the Royals young studs come up through the system in the next two years. Yost is about to see a major roster overhaul. Mous, Hos, Monty, Myers, Dwyer, Orlando, Lamb, etc. are all going to be making their MLB debuts while Yost is under contract. Yeah, that's more prospects than the Brewers had when Yost was managing the Brew Crew. Exciting stuff.

Hey, Kila got called up. Hopefully for good.

Close your eyes. It's 2006. How do you see the Royals in 2010? Alex Gordon hitting walkoff homers. Billy Butler smashing go ahead shots in the 8th inning. Zack Greinke pitching eight solid innings and getting the W. And we're 15 games under .500.

There is still work to do, but this was a good weekend for the Kansas City Royals and their fans. These last couple of months have the potential to be a lot of fun. The Royals could make a push back towards .500 and swing some momentum towards 2011. And they wouldn't be pushing back towards .500 with Ankiel, Farnsworth, Podsednik and Guillen, but rather with Gordon, Butler, Blanco, Collins, Kila and young, homegrown talent.

Sure, winning is fun, but I'm such a damn purist that when the Royals start winning, I want the Royals to do it the right way. Not how the Yankees or Dodgers do it. I want our guys. And that's what we've got here now. Our guys are starting to populate the roster. That's something to get excited about.

HAPPY SHARK WEEK!

Monday, July 26, 2010

Francoeur to the Royals...3 years in the making

**This rumor was shot down literally right after I posted this. Apparently, the Royals are "not interested" in Jeff Francoeur. But I hope you enjoy it anyways.

It began in 2005. Jeff Francoeur blasted into the National League and had scouts drooling. OPS over 1.000, batting average north of .330 and a Bondsian .631 slugging percentage.

Then he came down to earth...hard. He's been an awful, malcontent, overrated fielder, bust of a player. He's changed teams. That didn't work.

Apparently, Dayton Moore looks at Frenchy like that girl who has been cheated on, lied to and emotionally destroyed by her loser boyfriend yet still keeps going back to him, despite her friends and family pleading for her to move on.

"Just because he doesn't walk doesn't mean he doesn't love me!"

"Yeah he's posted a negative UZR the past three seasons, but he won a Gold Glove!"

"I know he said he doesn't care about walks, but he hit 29 home runs four years ago!"

Francoeur serves no purpose on the Royals. I would rather have a super robot constructed with all of the worst parts of Jose Guillen, Emil Brown, Terrence Long, Reggie Sanders and Shane Costa than have Jeff Francoeur.

This rumor surfaces every season. Whether in the offseason, May or near the trade deadline, it never goes away. It points to a bigger problem. The problem being that Dayton Moore is so in love with awful baseball players, it is going to kill the momentum that the Royals have going in their minor leagues.

So Moustakas, Hosmer and Montgomery come up and are really good. Guess what? Frenchy is "protecting" Mous and Hosmer in the lineup! OH JOY! Hey, lets sign a 37 year old Melky Cabrera! Let's go get Derek Lowe, cuz the Braves liked him, right? Man, think of all the possibilities! Hey, how about that Matt Diaz guy? Oh, we had him at one point? Screw him! Wait, call the Orioles, do you think John Lamb and Hos would be enough for former Brave great, Mike Gonzalez? Hey, get Pods agent on the phone, it's time for him to make his triumphant return to KC to be a member of the 2014 Royals! We need a leadoff hitter dad-gummit! That Robinson kid can't run. I need un-utilized speed and sweet 5 o'clock shadow beards. Get Ryan Freel out of retirement, I NEED ATHLETICISM ON THIS TEAM!

Get ready. #GMDMisdelusional

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Flip This House: Alberto Callaspo traded back to the Angels

Sorry, had to entertain my readers who watch HGTV.

I like this trade. Boost the pitching in the minors. Open up the third base spot for Mike Moustakas. See what you have in Wilson Betemit. Get rid of a guy who just couldn't find a home on the diamond.

I liked Callaspo. I liked the Buckner trade for Callaspo back in 2008. But Callaspo was never going to be a cornerstone of this franchise. Yeah, he was a .300 hitter last year. But that .300 average came at the cost of subpar defense and boneheaded off the field decisions. He struggled this year to put it together. His offense was fantastic for a second baseman...but Callaspo can't play second base. His defense was ok at third base...but his offense this year didn't warrant him playing a corner spot in the lineup, a position that has to supply power and run producing.

Nick Scott from Broken Bat Single said it best, these are the kind of trades that can have positive impact for YEARS to come. Callaspo didn't have a future with the team. You keep him on the team, it blocks Betemit and Moustakas. Callaspo was well liked in his time in KC, but the team has to start purging this roster. Callaspo was an offensive contributor in his time in Royal blue, but his defense also contributed to the 97 losses last year. He's the definition of an "in between" player.

So moving Callaspo off the depth chart gives the Royals a bit of breathing room and deepens the minor league system. Callaspo wasn't technically a young guy either, he's on the wrong side of 27 and has already peaked in my mind.

So long Bert, you have a long career in front of you, just not with us. I hope you don't make us pay for it in the future.

Now batting...Rick Ankiel.

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Well that was fun...

Royals have now dropped six in a row since their "critical" series in Chicago. Dreams of division titles and ticker tape and parades on the Plaza in 2010 have been stricken down...ha, just kidding.

The Royals trade rumor machine seems to be spitting out more and more back-fence talk each day and the gossip is picking up around baseball.

Joakim Soria has been rumored to the Yankees. The Royals hold the advantage if these negotiations ever take place. The asking price is very high for Soria, as it should be as he's arguably been one of the best closers in the last five years and his numbers are comparable to Mariano Rivera's over the last three years. If the Yankees come calling, the asking price on Soria should be two of the Yanks top five prospects and a C+ arm. Catcher Jesus Montero seems to be the hot-button player that the Yankees are offering. Montero is the 5th ranked prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America. But Montero has struggled this year and his defense behind the plate has scouts questioning his long term viability behind the plate.

Scott Podsednik's agent told him that teams have been inquiring about him. The asking price on Pods shouldn't be too high, but the way Dayton Moore values athletic ability, the Royals demands for him may be too much for teams to consider. With the way Alex Gordon has been swinging the bat in Omaha, the Royals would be wise to unload Scotty Pods for whatever they can get.

Eric Hosmer hit a home run in his first AA at-bat. Seriously, who wrote the script for the Royals minor leagues this year? A good second half in the Texas League puts Hosmer on track to start 2011 in Omaha and possibly make his Major League debut as early as sometime in the 2011 season.

Moustakas got called up to Omaha. A good second half from him and we could see him in a Royals jersey this year as a September call-up. But the Royals' brass has said Moustakas will not see the big leagues this year. Hmm, we'll see.

Ned Yost says that skids like the current six game bender that the Royals are currently on are "unacceptable". Hey Ned, you're the one who insists on batting Jason Kendall every day.

So what does the second half hold for the Royals? The outlook for the rest of the 2010 campaign looks pretty bleak, but some clever and necessary roster shuffling by Dayton Moore and Ned Yost could give fans reason to keep paying attention as we move into the dog days of Summer.

Monday, July 12, 2010

State of the Royals: All Star Break 2010

So, here we are. All Star Break. The Royals were contenders three days ago. Then they got swept by the White Sox and the writing seems to be on the wall concerning this ball club. I'm going to try my best to break down each facet of the ballclub in this post. If you're a regular reader of this blog, then you probably know what I think about the roster and the likes of Scott Podsednik and Jose Guillen. But I'll also take a look at the minor leagues, specifically Northwest Arkansas.

Offense

So I'll start off with what the Royals want the fans to believe is their biggest strong suit. Sure the Royals are among the league leaders in batting average, but they're bringing up the back end when it comes to slugging percentage and home runs. This team lacks the ability to blow teams out. We saw it in the Chicago series last weekend, the Royals simply don't have the horses to match up with the Carlos Quentins and Paul Konerkos of the AL Central. Our best "power" hitter is Jose Guillen. But you look closely at his stats, they aren't that impressive. He has 14 homers, yes, but he also has only hit 12 doubles. Jose has been a doubles hitter throughout his career and suddenly he has more homeruns than doubles. Meanwhile, our "cleanup" hitter, Billy Butler, who is holding steady with a whopping NINE homeruns at the All Star Break (which is making my preseason prediction of 30+ look absolutely ridiculous). Wilson Betemit has been a nice fill-in for Rick Ankiel. No wait, he's been 20x better and about $3 million dollars cheaper than Rick Ankiel.

The Royals have no problems clogging the bases with singles hitters, our problem is getting them home. The offense needs an injection of power. Maybe there are two hitters in Omaha that can do that for us? Nah, too simple...

State of the Royals offense: C+

Starting Pitching

Any rotation that has Bruce Chen in it deserves criticism. Of course, Chen has made Dayton Moore look like a genius and posted a sub-4.00 ERA in his replacement of Gil Meche. But outside of Chen's unlikely success, this rotation is bad. Brian Bannister's SABR-magic has worn off. The Kyle Davies Project looks like it is on its last legs. Seriously, Kyle Davies should pitch like he's about to be DFA'ed in each of his starts. Just when I'm ready to write him off, he pitches well. Zack Greinke is getting back on track after a rocky start.

Anthony Lerew is holding down Hoch's spot well, despite getting rocked in his last start. Hopefully nothing is terribly wrong with Luke Hochevar. I was really enjoying watching him pitch. He's worked very well with Kendall this year. His problem seems to be that he'll either pitch a gem or look like Scott Elarton.

Gil Meche needs surgery. I'm convinced. If he goes under the knife this season, he may be able to return mid-season next year and try to salvage what is left of his career.

State of the Royals starting rotation: D

Bullpen

These guys have been great. After an AWFUL start to the year, the bullpen has come together really well. From Kyle Farnsworth to Dusty Hughes to Blake Wood, these guys have really turned it around. Very few blown saves around this team. The bullpen has been a huge part of the Royals Yost-era success. Apparently, Ned has every bullpen pitcher throwing off the mound every day. Whereas Trey had players take a day or two off after pitching. Joakim Soria has been dominant, not quite 2008 dominant, but about as good as he'll be for the rest of his career. Blake Wood may be getting lucky with pitching-to-contact. He can't strike anybody out. His fastball is phenomenal. I'm not so sure he's the setup savior that this front office is labeling him as.

Kyle Farnsworth has been outstanding this year. Well worth his salary. He's even getting the job done in high leverage situations. Add him to the list of must-trade players.

State of the Royals bullpen: B+

Minor Leagues

Wow. What can I say that already hasn't been said by every minor league guru on the internet? I mentioned to Greg Schaum earlier this year that the Royals may have a farm system that is becoming the envy of Major League Baseball. Schaum was quick to slow my roll, but agreed that there are some positives surrounding the Royals farm system. Now, in July, I can confidently say that the Royals absolutely have a farm system that has many executives drooling.

Let's start at the top: Mike Moustakas has become the Mike Schmidt of the Texas League. Leading the league in most offensive categories, while playing 17 less games than most players. Eric Hosmer is driving the ball in the Carolina League, something that Moustakas couldn't do last year. Some people are concerned about his lack of homeruns, but in the C-League, doubles are just as good as homeruns and Hosmer has 27 of 'em. Mike Montgomery is continuing his dominance of the minors. But the real treat of the Royals farm system to emerge this year is 20 year old LHP John Lamb. He's averaging over 10 K's per 9 IP. He's got a 1.41 ERA. His stock is rising quickly and for damn good reason.

Not only are the Royals seeing individual success at the minor league level, but also team success. A thing minor league purists will tell you is more important than stats and scouting reports. The Naturals already clinched a playoff spot by winning the first half championship in the Texas League's Northern division. Meanwhile, up in the PCL, the O-Royals are in a heated pennant chase with the Iowa Cubs and Memphis Redbirds, led by the Kila Whale and a resurgent, but currently slumping, Alex Gordon.

A diamond in the rough in the Royals pipeline is 1B/DH Clint Robinson at AA NW Arkansas, who is hitting .318/.396/.591/.987. If Kila Ka'aihue turns out to be a bust, then we've got C-Rob right on his heels, who will likely join Mike Moustakas in Omaha before the season is over. Also add LHP Edgar Osuna to the mix. A guy who likely pans out as a lefty set up man or lefty starter in the future. Posting a 2.59 ERA and 1.100 WHIP, Osuna could be another Rule 5 gem picked by Dayton Moore.

Then throw in Wil Myers, Chris Dwyer, Kila Ka'aihue, Alex Gordon (not a prospect anymore, but who cares), Louis Coleman, Tim Melville, Aaron Crow, Brandon Sisk and Derrick Robinson and you have a minor league system that is stocked better than a Y2K-believer's basement.

To put it bluntly: our minor leagues are STACKED. Stacked, baby. Even if 50% of these guys bust, we've still got a hell of a lot of contributors who are under Kansas City Royal control through the better part of this decade. It's a beautiful thing.

State of the Royals minor leagues: A+

Look, this team is at a serious crossroads right now. I've been saying that for weeks now, but it is the truth. We can wear the rose colored glasses and think that we're "contenders" and do the organization as a whole a disservice. Or we can get back on the wagon and start building this thing for next year. I say next year because, well, this division is going to be just as winnable in 2011 as it was this year. The possibility of making a division run with homegrown talent is very exciting. That's something that everyone can get behind.

State of the Royals: C+