Opening Weekend revisited

The first cut is the deepest. What a way to open up the 2011 season. The Royals are 3-1 on the strength of some late heroics in all three victories. Hell, we were one windgust from being 4-0. There was a lot of magic squeezed into this weekend and the optimism from Spring Training has been extended into another week.

So before you start pre-ordering those ALDS tickets against Baltimore, let's just sit back and enjoy this off day before the inevitable poo hits the fan.

I know that one weekend series is coming sometime in early May when the Royals are sitting around .500 and we go on that West Coast swing, drop eight of nine and the downward spiral begins. Maybe it won't come this year and the Royals will stick around .500 throughout the entire season. Look, if you aren't the least bit encouraged by this weekend, then boo on you.

The Royals did something this weekend that they haven't done in years, they made a bad bullpen pay dearly for their mistakes. They almost did it in all four games. The Angels bullpen couldn't find the strike zone and the Royals got to one of their perennial "thorns in our collective side", Fernando Rodney. I'm not ready to say "Game On." quite yet. In fact, that time will not come until this team is at least 10 games over .500 near the All Star break. I've learned my lesson in the past few seasons.

There is a different feel to this team in seasons past, though. The players are likeable and seem to really believe in each other. Look at this picture and try to tell me that this isn't a group that is ready to prove the naysayers wrong. Once again, this is not me trying to swing optimism to a fanbase on life support, but do you see Tim Collins' face? Frenchy looks like he just found out OBP has been eliminated as an officially tracked stat. Melky Cabrera looks like he's ready to hug a guy he met two weeks ago, which coincidentally would be the first time he hugged someone since childhood.

No statistical analysis needed in this post, because the Royals overcame two terrible starts by Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen and showcased a never-say-die attitude not seen around here since Tony Pena was taking showers with his clothes on.

Matt Treanor was picked up off the scrap heap from Texas and is currently my vote for Royals Player of the Week after some great defense behind the plate and hitting a walkoff homer in extras last week. Matt Treanor wasn't signed to be an offensive contributor, but rather a game caller and defensive specialist. As if the Jason Kendall signing needed to look worse, Treanor's play in the opening weekend was everything and more than the Royals expected when they pissed away six million dollars on Kendall's contract.

Our bullpen? Skeet, skeet, skeet. Timmay Collins and Aaron Crow were dynamite. I have never been more excited to see relievers come in to games. I had goose bumps when Crow came in and shut down the middle of the Angels' order late on Opening Day. Tim Collins seems to strike people out with his sheer awesomeness. Nate Adcock and Jeremy Jeffress didn't perform as well as KKKKKrow and Collins, but they should be nice pieces to this bullpen in the middle to late innings if/when our starters go to hell. Back to Crow and Collins, all I have to say is man crush. I think it's safe to say that if we can get leads into the sixth, seventh and eighth innings, this team can be dangerous. But that's a big "if", especially with our paper thin rotation.

But as I sit and type this on the first of many off-day Mondays, I can't help but wonder what might happen if this team can simply outscore opponents. Alex Gordon had a great opening weekend (minus Opening Day). Jeff Francouer did his best Jeff Francouer impression, but still got some big hits. Kila was clutch all weekend and Billy was being Billy by the time Saturday and Sunday rolled around.

Don't worry about when the regression to the mean will happen. Just realize that this team in in first place and two games over .500 for the first time since May of 2009. Let's have some fun while we can. Oh yeah, the White Sox are in town this week. Let's keep it going boys.

Royals 2011 Season Preview

It's here. Baseball starts today and I'm more optimistic about this team since June of 2009. Predictions for the boys in blue have been all across the board, from 100+ losses to flirting with .500. I'm not entirely ready to drink a tall glass of optimism with rose colored glasses on, but I am entirely ready for another season of the greatest game on earth, baseball.

For the Royals, obviously all eyes are focused on the future. But to get to Mission: 2012, we must endure 2011.

In 2011, there will be hair pulled out of our heads, remotes thrown and season tickets threatened to be cancelled. But the sun is starting to rise, the night is darkest before the dawn, what have you. So what will we see when we look back on the 2011 season?

I'm not entirely sure. What I see is a team in the truest form of transition, trying to make do with what they already have on the roster. Needs were addressed in the offseason, mainly in the outfield. But instead of going out and grabbing whatever old veteran was left on the scrap heap, the Royals signed guys with upside. Sure, Jeff Francouer, Jeff Francis and Melky Cabrera may not be the ideal candidates to improve a young team, but they are guys with some upside. Francouer was the next big thing when he came up with the Braves as a 21-year-old, but he sucks now. There's some upside still there. Not a whole lot of upside, but anything we get from these place holders should be viewed as a bonus.

Now that I addressed the three biggest question marks on the roster, it's time to guzzle down a high ball of optimism. Kila Ka'aihue is finally going to get his shot. I am pretty enthusiastic about this. Kila came on strong late last year and mashed seven homers in Spring Training this year. Kila has showcased the ability to get on base not seen in these parts in the last five years. Couple that with the encouraging projections from Bill James and PECOTA, and we might see the emergence of a cult hero in Ka'aihue.

Billy Butler has been relegated to DH duty and this seems to be the right idea. Butler is the textbook definition of a "professional hitter". Baseball history points to a big jump in Billy's overall power numbers, which seems absurd considering he hits close to 60 extra base hits every season. But if Billy turns into a Edgar Martinez carbon copy, are we really going to be that upset? I'd rather have a guy who is consistently putting the ball in play and getting on base than a guy who will mash 25 homers and strike out 150 times in the DH role.

Alex Gordon was going to be my #1 "wild card" for the Royals this season, but I figured I'd consolidate an entire post into a paragraph or two about Gordo. This is it for him. Be great, or be league average. The Royals are all-in with Alex Gordon for this year, shown by Ned Yost penciling him into the #3 hole in the Opening Day lineup. Gordon showed great plate discipline early on in spring and a new hitting approach mixed in with a shiny new swing have Royals fans thinking about a breakout season. He will get every opportunity this season to prove that he belongs on this team beyond this year and be privileged to stay with this team when our farm system begins yielding results. I'm going to shy away from completely jumping on the Gordon bandwagon, but I do reserve the right to jump on when he has 15 bombs and an .850 OPS at the All Star break...

But of course, I can go on and on about how I am much more optimistic about this team than in the past couple of seasons. The truth is that 2011 will be a waiting game. Us Royals fans are going to be like dogs waiting at the front door of our house, waiting for our family to come home after a long, 25-year vacation from winning. Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Mike Montgomery and the whole motley crew are stampeding towards Kauffman Stadium. The question is how long will it be until they get here?

Well, they might already be here. Not the crown jewels of the system, but some of the integral pieces to what will be a franchise resurgence the likes which have never been witnessed.

In the bullpen.

Yes, the bullpen is where this all begins and ends (puns are punny). Tim Collins, Jeremy Jeffress, Nathan Adcock and Aaron Crow are all slated to be members of the Royals' bullpen come 3pm today. The bullpen hasn't seen this much youth in a long, long time, if not ever. Three rookies alone in the bullpen, soon to be joined by the fourth, Louis Coleman whenever the Royals see fit to promote him. In my mind, Coleman will make the trip down I-29 with Moustakas and/or Hosmer in May or June. The question here is whether or not the Royals' starters can get late leads to this bullpen.

So that's that. I know I missed a few things ("improved" speed and defense, but Dick Kaegel was not available for comment), but I covered what I feel are the biggest storylines headed into this season. Who's ready for some predictions? You're not? Too bad, here they are:

Record: 71-91
Division finish: 4th
MVP: Billy Butler
Pitcher of the Year: Joakim Soria
Rookie of the Year: Tim Collins
Managerial changes: 0
Fan walkouts: 0

Royals Wild Cards for 2011: #2 Luke Hochevar

Luke Hochevar once again finds himself on this list after holding down the #3 spot in last year's Royals Kingdom wild card list. Hoch had a pretty respectable 2010 until he was derailed by injury in the middle of the season. Before he went down, you could see him putting it together. Also, when he came back in September, he turned in two quality starts before the season ended.

So what is it with Hoch? I've heard that he has confidence issues, that he still struggles with his control, so on and so forth. The Royals have all but named him their Opening Day starter, so if that doesn't help out at least a little bit with his confidence, we might see more of the same from Hochevar in 2011.

Consistency is what we need from him.

The issue with Hochevar is not him not developing into a front of the line starter, but solidifying himself in the rotation as a good, if not great #3 starter. With a ton of left-handed starting pitching prospects about to flood the roster, Hochevar has to be a guy the Royals can lean on in the future. Hoch's service time isn't much of an issue, but he's about to enter the prime of his career this season as he will turn 28 in September.

The time for Hochevar to make a difference is now. He's got to become a reliable starter, not a guy who will go out and get shelled for four runs in five innings. He's been branded the next Derek Lowe, so take that as you may.

Maybe Hochevar is one of those guys who develops late, maybe he's just a bust. I can't help but think what could have been if the Royals had gone in another direction in that 2006 draft. Tim Lincecum, Evan Longoria, the list goes on and it's littered with guys who are worlds ahead of Hochevar.

So what do we expect from Hochevar in 2011? In my mind, you have to be happy with anything less than a 4.50 ERA. Which is pretty pathetic, but Hoch's influence on this franchise goes much beyond what he accomplishes in 2011. If Hoch doesn't finally become the guy we thought he would be, this is what we're looking at for a rotation in 2012 and beyond:

1. Mike Montgomery (rookie lefty)
2. Chris Dwyer (rookie lefty)
3. Luke Hochevar (below average righty)
4. Danny Duffy (rookie lefty)
5. Everett Teaford (rookie lefty)

In other words, not very good as far as strategy goes. Now, of course, all of those rookies might hit their potential in their first season or so and become above average, even good or great major league starters. But having Hochevar turn into a solid middle of the rotation arm is incredibly valuable to this team. It provides flexibility in the rotation and allows the Royals to not have to worry about match ups against lefty heavy lineups and so forth.

Hochevar's wild card goes much beyond this season. That seems to be a common trend developing in my wild card series. Let's hope Hoch can find some rhythm and success this season. If a healthy Hoch can do what he did when he was healthy last season, then we don't have much to worry about.

Quick Thoughts: the meaning of Spring Training stats

There are several Royals having great springs so far. Mike Aviles is crushing the ball and hitting .458. Mitch Maier can't get out and is getting on base at a .652 clip. Melky freaking Cabrera is hitting over .500. Alex Gordon can't seem to do anything other than draw walks. Eric Hosmer is slugging .929...but so is Lance Zawadzki.

So what's the point? I'm not sure if there is one, but one thing is for sure, Spring Training stats are misleading. Always have been and always will be, especially for guys on the 25-man roster.

You can search high and low on the internet, but it is very difficult to find Spring Training stats from seasons past. So, I'm gonna have to go from memory on this one and from what I can remember, Maier had a big spring last year.

But Spring Training stats are important for guys like Hosmer and Moustakas. Honestly, on a scale from 1 to 10 how excited are you for these guys? We knew one or two of Butler, Gordon and Hochevar were going to be good, but Hosmer and Moustakas show Hall of Fame potential. All reports from Spring Training are billing Hosmer as the next Jim Thome, but a much better looking and athletic version of Jim Thome.

I'm excited. I can't wait. I don't want to rush into things, but it's going to be a fun summer, no matter how many games we lose.

Quick Thoughts: The absurdity of Jason Kendall

Leadership, leadership, leadership. We've had it beaten into our brains from the time Matt Stairs was taking ABs away from Justin Huber to now Jason Kendall just being a general jerk to media members.

Now, not all leaders were "nice guys". I'm sure General Patton was a world class jerk, but Patton was, you know, really good at his job.

Jason Kendall is not.

I know he's played 2,000 games at the big league level and he was at one time a premier catcher in the major leagues. But that time has passed and Kendall is now lucky to even have a job, a job given to him by an organization that was desperately looking for "leadership".

I'm sure most of my readers have heard the exchange between 610 Sports' Nick Wright and Kendall during Wright's interview with Mike Moustakas. Basically, Nick asked Moustakas if he was fine with starting the season out in AAA Omaha until June so he and the Royals can avoid "Super Two" status after the 2012 season. At this time, Kendall (obviously upset because nobody wants to talk to him or whatever) interrupts Wright's interview to M-F bomb Wright and put Moustakas in an incredibly awkward situation.

Crash Davis would never do that.

Here's my question, what kind of "leader" does this? This isn't rookie hazing or anything like that. Hell, it isn't even protective. It just sounds like Kendall was having a bad day (he's prone to these) and decided to take his anger out on an unsuspecting journalist...no wait, one of the more popular, if not the most popular sports journalist in Kansas City. Great move, fearless leader.

In my mind, Kendall has been perhaps the biggest disaster in Dayton Moore's tenure, outside of Jose Guillen. To me, this guy isn't a leader, but rather a crotchety, old veteran trying to collect one last big paycheck. Bravo, sir. You've done it! You have tricked GM's into throwing millions in guaranteed money at you by being labeled as a leader.

Craig Brown at Royals Authority wrote a great article about how Kendall should take Gil Meche's lead and just walk away now. Of course, the situations are different. Kendall seems like the classic "gamer" who won't retire until there aren't any I-League teams willing to sign him. But the health problems are very similar. Kendall isn't going to help this team. Especially as a "leader". His behavior today was the act of a man who knows that he is at the end of his rope, trying to possibly gain favor with a young, up-and-comer.

To me, it was pathetic.

Royals Wild Cards for 2011: #3 Alcides Escobar

Stabilizing the defense up the middle has been an alleged priority of Dayton Moore ever since he got here. Since then, we've seen a gauntlet of suck run through the position of shortstop from Tony Pena, Jr., Willie Bloomquist and Yuniesky Betancourt. Even Mike Aviles wasn't that great defensively when he was at shortstop.

The Royals paid the Brewers $2 million dollars to take Yuniesky Betancourt in the Zack Grienke trade, which in my mind was a small miracle. Alcides Escobar came over in the Greinke trade after an incredibly underwhelming .235/.288/.326 for the Brew Crew last season. Not a great start for the one-time 12th ranked prospect in baseball.

The reason that Escobar is a wild card is solely based on the fact that he is a shortstop. We haven't had a respectable shortstop here since Freddie Patek and I'm hoping this all changes with Escobar. Some people say that the Royals didn't get star-caliber players in the Greinke trade. I'm fine with that, considering that we possibly have hall of fame-caliber players in our minor league system right now. Escobar will need to be a role player and he has to stick to the shortstop position, as it is pretty obvious that the front office plans on switching last year's first-round pick Christian Colon to second base.

So, Escobar's "wild cardness" goes much beyond his performance this year. In fact, his performance this year could be a big moment in the Dayton Moore regime. Will Escobar stick at short and move Colon over to his more natural position at second base? I think so. Escobar has been heralded as the "next big thing" when it comes to playing defense at the shortstop position. Word on the street is that Escobar is going to make our eyes pop out of our heads with the plays he's going to make. Hey, that's great, but can he make the throw to first without launching the ball into the dugout suites?

I think Escobar will be much better than Yuni, which isn't saying much, but it is saying something. Escobar has much better plate discipline...once again, not saying much...than the Yunigma. Quite simply, Escobar is a better athlete and better baseball player than Yuni. So take that, Dick Kaegel!

There's a lot riding on Escobar. But it is easy to look at his stats and see the beginnings of perhaps Yuni 2.0. Much like Kila Ka'aihue at first base, Escobar has one year to solidify himself at shortstop, because the Royals can't spend too much time deciding what to do with Colon's defensive position.

Escobar's ceiling is as an above average major league shortstop. No more, no less. And after the past 10 years at that position for this francise, wouldn't you take that?

Royals Wild Cards for 2011: #4 Kila Ka'aihue

Big questions surround the big Hawaiian entering 2011. Is he really the real deal? Can he keep mashing at the MLB level, or is he just another AAAA masher who can't hack it in the bigs?

Kila is undoubtedly a fan favorite. The chips are definitely stacked against him. A 15th round pick out of high school whose path to the big leagues has been blocked by wet mops like Ross Gload and Jose Guillen. It's safe to say that the fans are in his corner.

Kila had his struggles last year, but he came on late, hitting .261/.367/.511 in the final 30 games of 2010. Also, six of his eight homers came in the last 30 games of the season. Kila's BABIP was also .297, a sign that he was hitting the ball hard.

Of course, one can point to the fact that this all came in September (let the Ryan Shealy comps come rolling in). But I think there's more to the story when it comes to Kila.

Kila had multi-hit games against (ERA in parenthesis) Nick Blackburn (5.42), Fausto Carmona (3.77), Gio Gonzalez (3.23), Edwin Jackson (4.47), Rick Porcello (4.92) and Tommy Hunter (3.73). Those guys aren't your run-of-the-mill September call ups.

To me, Kila's early MLB numbers combined with his minor league stats scream "Carlos Pena 2.0". Unfortunately, Pena bounced around until being uncovered by the Tampa Bay Rays a few years ago. If the Royals are as committed to OBP as they say they are, Kila should be a fixture in this lineup for several years.

But much like Wilson Betemit and Mike Aviles, Kila is in a precarious spot, as he is occupying a position that will likely be taken over by a prospect in the very near future. Eric Hosmer will likely be with the club sometime either this season or next season, giving Kila very little time to prove that he has a spot on this team.

Most people will ask for Kila to be traded when Hosmer is ready to make his big league debut, but Kila can also force the Royals hand by turning in a dynamite first half. He's under team control for the next five seasons. As a 27-year old, Kila's contract will be Royals' property all the way through his prime.

PECOTA has Kila projected at 25 home runs and a .387 OBP. I'm sorry, but that's not something you just trade away, even to make room for an uber-prospect like Hosmer. Plus, I don't think the market for Kila would even be good enough to warrant a trade. The point is, Kila's value goes beyond home runs and on-base percentage. I'm not a scout, but I think Hosmer would transition to the outfield very easily. Of course, Hosmer, much like a Lance Berkman, has a future at first base, but in the mean time, could be a very serviceable and possibly even good major league outfielder while Kila holds down first base and DH duties for the next few seasons.

The worry on my end is that Kila has placed a ton of pressure on himself to perform. I can't blame him. This is his shot. He's got one chance to impress. Of course, he might get one down the road, but if he wants to be a big leaguer, this year is critical for him. The Royals had shown little faith in him up until last summer. But if Kila is mashing at the K on a 30+ HR pace come July and Eric Hosmer is banging the door down in Omaha, the Royals have a choice.

My belief is that Kila will be kept around, his contract is incredibly valuable. It seems that the Royals are very careful with service time. If Kila lives up to the promise, he is an extremely valuable player.