Monday, July 12, 2010

State of the Royals: All Star Break 2010

So, here we are. All Star Break. The Royals were contenders three days ago. Then they got swept by the White Sox and the writing seems to be on the wall concerning this ball club. I'm going to try my best to break down each facet of the ballclub in this post. If you're a regular reader of this blog, then you probably know what I think about the roster and the likes of Scott Podsednik and Jose Guillen. But I'll also take a look at the minor leagues, specifically Northwest Arkansas.

Offense

So I'll start off with what the Royals want the fans to believe is their biggest strong suit. Sure the Royals are among the league leaders in batting average, but they're bringing up the back end when it comes to slugging percentage and home runs. This team lacks the ability to blow teams out. We saw it in the Chicago series last weekend, the Royals simply don't have the horses to match up with the Carlos Quentins and Paul Konerkos of the AL Central. Our best "power" hitter is Jose Guillen. But you look closely at his stats, they aren't that impressive. He has 14 homers, yes, but he also has only hit 12 doubles. Jose has been a doubles hitter throughout his career and suddenly he has more homeruns than doubles. Meanwhile, our "cleanup" hitter, Billy Butler, who is holding steady with a whopping NINE homeruns at the All Star Break (which is making my preseason prediction of 30+ look absolutely ridiculous). Wilson Betemit has been a nice fill-in for Rick Ankiel. No wait, he's been 20x better and about $3 million dollars cheaper than Rick Ankiel.

The Royals have no problems clogging the bases with singles hitters, our problem is getting them home. The offense needs an injection of power. Maybe there are two hitters in Omaha that can do that for us? Nah, too simple...

State of the Royals offense: C+

Starting Pitching

Any rotation that has Bruce Chen in it deserves criticism. Of course, Chen has made Dayton Moore look like a genius and posted a sub-4.00 ERA in his replacement of Gil Meche. But outside of Chen's unlikely success, this rotation is bad. Brian Bannister's SABR-magic has worn off. The Kyle Davies Project looks like it is on its last legs. Seriously, Kyle Davies should pitch like he's about to be DFA'ed in each of his starts. Just when I'm ready to write him off, he pitches well. Zack Greinke is getting back on track after a rocky start.

Anthony Lerew is holding down Hoch's spot well, despite getting rocked in his last start. Hopefully nothing is terribly wrong with Luke Hochevar. I was really enjoying watching him pitch. He's worked very well with Kendall this year. His problem seems to be that he'll either pitch a gem or look like Scott Elarton.

Gil Meche needs surgery. I'm convinced. If he goes under the knife this season, he may be able to return mid-season next year and try to salvage what is left of his career.

State of the Royals starting rotation: D

Bullpen

These guys have been great. After an AWFUL start to the year, the bullpen has come together really well. From Kyle Farnsworth to Dusty Hughes to Blake Wood, these guys have really turned it around. Very few blown saves around this team. The bullpen has been a huge part of the Royals Yost-era success. Apparently, Ned has every bullpen pitcher throwing off the mound every day. Whereas Trey had players take a day or two off after pitching. Joakim Soria has been dominant, not quite 2008 dominant, but about as good as he'll be for the rest of his career. Blake Wood may be getting lucky with pitching-to-contact. He can't strike anybody out. His fastball is phenomenal. I'm not so sure he's the setup savior that this front office is labeling him as.

Kyle Farnsworth has been outstanding this year. Well worth his salary. He's even getting the job done in high leverage situations. Add him to the list of must-trade players.

State of the Royals bullpen: B+

Minor Leagues

Wow. What can I say that already hasn't been said by every minor league guru on the internet? I mentioned to Greg Schaum earlier this year that the Royals may have a farm system that is becoming the envy of Major League Baseball. Schaum was quick to slow my roll, but agreed that there are some positives surrounding the Royals farm system. Now, in July, I can confidently say that the Royals absolutely have a farm system that has many executives drooling.

Let's start at the top: Mike Moustakas has become the Mike Schmidt of the Texas League. Leading the league in most offensive categories, while playing 17 less games than most players. Eric Hosmer is driving the ball in the Carolina League, something that Moustakas couldn't do last year. Some people are concerned about his lack of homeruns, but in the C-League, doubles are just as good as homeruns and Hosmer has 27 of 'em. Mike Montgomery is continuing his dominance of the minors. But the real treat of the Royals farm system to emerge this year is 20 year old LHP John Lamb. He's averaging over 10 K's per 9 IP. He's got a 1.41 ERA. His stock is rising quickly and for damn good reason.

Not only are the Royals seeing individual success at the minor league level, but also team success. A thing minor league purists will tell you is more important than stats and scouting reports. The Naturals already clinched a playoff spot by winning the first half championship in the Texas League's Northern division. Meanwhile, up in the PCL, the O-Royals are in a heated pennant chase with the Iowa Cubs and Memphis Redbirds, led by the Kila Whale and a resurgent, but currently slumping, Alex Gordon.

A diamond in the rough in the Royals pipeline is 1B/DH Clint Robinson at AA NW Arkansas, who is hitting .318/.396/.591/.987. If Kila Ka'aihue turns out to be a bust, then we've got C-Rob right on his heels, who will likely join Mike Moustakas in Omaha before the season is over. Also add LHP Edgar Osuna to the mix. A guy who likely pans out as a lefty set up man or lefty starter in the future. Posting a 2.59 ERA and 1.100 WHIP, Osuna could be another Rule 5 gem picked by Dayton Moore.

Then throw in Wil Myers, Chris Dwyer, Kila Ka'aihue, Alex Gordon (not a prospect anymore, but who cares), Louis Coleman, Tim Melville, Aaron Crow, Brandon Sisk and Derrick Robinson and you have a minor league system that is stocked better than a Y2K-believer's basement.

To put it bluntly: our minor leagues are STACKED. Stacked, baby. Even if 50% of these guys bust, we've still got a hell of a lot of contributors who are under Kansas City Royal control through the better part of this decade. It's a beautiful thing.

State of the Royals minor leagues: A+

Look, this team is at a serious crossroads right now. I've been saying that for weeks now, but it is the truth. We can wear the rose colored glasses and think that we're "contenders" and do the organization as a whole a disservice. Or we can get back on the wagon and start building this thing for next year. I say next year because, well, this division is going to be just as winnable in 2011 as it was this year. The possibility of making a division run with homegrown talent is very exciting. That's something that everyone can get behind.

State of the Royals: C+

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Royals Kingdom Radio Cancelled

I hate to use that word, but after an eight month run, Royals Kingdom Radio is no more. The show received great feedback from what listeners we had, but in the end, the cost of running the show was no longer feasible for myself and the JPEG Show Network. I want to thank James Peuster for giving me the prime 4pm spot on 1160 AM on Sunday afternoons and allowing me to share my voice to greater Kansas City.

Royals Kingdom Radio may come back, it may not. For now, my short lived radio career is on hold. But I'm sure I'll be back in the future.

As for the blog, KEEP READING! I have no plans of discontinuing the blog.

Anyways, thanks for listening!

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Critical series coming up for the Royals

Ok, so six months ago when the Royals' schedule was released, this looked like just another series, in just another lost season, in just another 6-9 win month. But now, this Royals/White Sox tilt has taken on a whole new look.

These are the series that fans of toiling franchises dream about.

Here it is. Mid-July. The Royals are quasi-contenders. Eight games out of first place in a winnable division on July 8. The White Sox came to town with their "hottest team in baseball" cooties, and it has seemed to rub off on the Royals, who have now won 10 of their last 13 ballgames.

So, here we go. Bruce Chen (5-2, 3.51), who is doing his best Mark Buehrle impression, takes on Mark Buehrle (7-7, 4.53), who is doing his best Bruce Chen impression, in game one of the series. Dayman Banny takes on Gavin Floyd in game two. And Zack Greinke vs. TBA on Sunday for game three. Pretty winnable series on paper. Royals have been rocking Buehrle around all year. Gavin Floyd is finally developing into a mediocre pitcher and whoever the third starter is, is going to have a tough time taking on a Zack Greinke who has started to pitch like a combination of 2009 Zack and Optimus Prime.

Make no doubt about it. This is when games start to matter more. This is the last series before the All Star Break. Most teams are looking forward to the break and spending time away from the game. From all reports, the Royals can't wait to get back out on the field each day. These guys are playing really, really good, entertaining baseball right now. A series win in Chicago catapults the Royals into the All Star Break, single digits behind the division leader and playing their best baseball all year.

After Chicago and the break, it's back to KC for three-game sets with the Oakland A's and Toronto Blue Jays. Making this stretch even more crucial, 13 of the first 17 games after the All Star Break are played at Kauffman Stadium. A good series in Chicago and continuing this hot streak could be the right mix for a good excuse to go out to the ballpark for an otherwise disinterested fanbase.

I consider the White Sox a rival. This is how rivalries are strengthened. Mid to late season games that have division race implications. And even though the Royals are still seven games under .500, this series is still just as big as every other series with a division opponent for the rest of the year.

It is a borderline critical series for our boys in blue. There is a groundswell of support for these guys all of the sudden. A series win in Chicago completely energizes the city and fans and it could be a pretty fun second half of July, and possibly second half of the season here in KC.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Are the Royals closer than we think?

After reading Sam Mellinger's article, I started taking inventory of the Yost era.

Here are the facts:

-The Royals are 22-22 under Ned Yost.

-The Royals are 22-22 under Ned Yost, despite the fact that Jason Kendall and Scott Podsednik anchor the top of the lineup and Yuniesky Betancourt plays nearly every day.

-The bullpen is vastly improved after the additions of Blake Wood, Victor Marte, Dusty Hughes and Kanekoa Texeira.

-The Royals are only being outscored by 31 runs (run differential of .39 runs per game).

-The offense is based on stringing singles together.

-The Royals lack multiple power threats.

-Nearing the halfway point, the Royals are only 9.5 games out of first place.

-Jose Guillen is currently blocking two players who are tearing up AAA Omaha. If he is moved, the Royals 25 man roster becomes wide open and allows Kila and Gordon to be moved on to the team for regular duty.

-Zack Greinke is starting to look like Zack Greinke.

-Anthony Lerew and Bruce Chen are filling the voids of Luke Hochevar and Gil Meche nicely.

-The Royals appear to be on the verge of a significant roster turnover as the trade deadline approaches.

Now here's the hopeful, borderline-insanity-optimism:

With the subtraction of one player (J. Guillen) and addition of two players (Gordon and Ka'aihue), the Royals immediately add power bats and basecloggers to the everyday roster. This will assess what is currently the Royals biggest void: power. Can the addition of Gordon and Ka'aihue really do that much?

Answer: YES.

Those two combined can put up numbers that will put the Royals in a good position to make a late season push at .500. Certain spots in the lineup have created offensive "hot spots" that has marginal players putting up big RBI numbers. Yuniesky Betancourt has 33 RBIs. He's batting .225 with runners in scoring position in the 9 hole. Meanwhile, David DeJesus is sporting a robust .323 average with RISP, and 35 RBIs.

The Royals need guys who can draw walks and hit for power, plain and simple. The team is serviceable right now. But the singles train needs a locomotive. A massive power generating machine to put this club over the top.

Only being outscored by .39 runs a game, the Royals really aren't that far away from a numbers stand point. Fundamentally, they're below average, but the addition of some power bats and clever roster maneuvering by Dayton Moore could add that boost that the Royals need to get back on track.

A strong finish to 2010 means several things. It will re-energize the fanbase. It will move the team in the PROPER youth direction that they have strayed from in the last one and a half years and it will put them into position to be a better team in the future.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Guillen's hot streak was done with smoke and mirrors

Jose Guillen just capped off his 21 game hit streak against the White Sox last night, going 0-3 with a walk. Of course, many fans started jumping on the Guillen bandwagon saying that he had returned to form (which is saying SOOOOO much).

Guillen's "hot" streak may have well been a hitting streak by Scotty Pods. Thanks to some research by our friends over at Royals Review, they found that Guillen had put up this stellar line during the last 15 days of his streak: .364/.386/.354/.750. That's a pretty standard line for a guy with a 21 game hitting streak. The hitting streak was anything but "hot" though. Guillen was good for ONE extra base hit during the entire streak.

Of course, this isn't indicative of Guillen being a poor hitter. He did what he could. Reports have come out that Guillen has been suffering from blisters on his lead foot, making it hard for him to turn on that inside pitch.

Now, the Royals should take this as a sign to give Guillen a couple of days off. Imagine how he could hit with good feet. This hitting streak only increases his value on the trade market.

I'm not taking anything away from Guillen though. He's done a great job, but adding another car to the singles train that is the Royals' offense doesn't do anyone any favors.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Are the Royals and Cardinals even rivals anymore?

I went to the first I-70 Series back in 1997. The first time the Royals and Cardinals had played since 1985. Kauffman Stadium was electric. Johnny Damon charged the mound after being hit by a Tim Belcher pitch in Game 2. The Royals kicked the crap out of the Cardinals in game 2, 16-5, while losing close games in the first and third games of the series. I remember the crowd being 70-30 in favor of Royals fans. Boy that was a fun time...

Now, 13 years and five managers later, the Royals still haven't made the playoffs or fielded a legitimate contender. Meanwhile, 250 miles down the road, the Cardinals have made two World Series appearances while winning/stealing one in 2006 against young and error-prone Detroit Tigers team.

So it goes. Every June, Kauffman Stadium looks like Arrowhead Stadium. Red clad Cardinal fans board the "Best Fans in Baseball"tm train and storm Kauffman Stadium, like that pathetic uncle from out of town who comes to visit every summer. They drink, they yell, they tell everyone that Budweiser is the best beer in the world and how toasted ravioli was invented in St. Louis. They claim you can't find a decent slice of pizza anywhere outside of the 636 or 314 area codes. Cool.

"The Best Fans in Baseball"tm might as well be the "Most Annoying Fans in Baseball", screaming anytime Albert Pujols hits a flyball. They boo when Albert Pujols gets intentionally walked, even though they have "fan favorite" Matt Holliday protecting him in the order. But I guess that's why you pay him $16 million dollars, so you can boo teams walking the best player of our generation in their own stadium.

They come like a swarm of locusts, spending their money at hotels and bars (Hey, thanks for paying for Sprint Center!). They talk about how the Cubs/Cardinals rivalry is the best in baseball, screw Red Sox/Yankees and Mets/Phillies. The whole weekend is like them showing off to the whole city of Chicago. Claiming, "Hey! Look at us! We run this town...like you do when the Cubs come to play at Busch..."

Here's my point. Cardinals fans don't consider this a rivalry anymore. I know a lot of Cardinals fans, some of my best friends are from Eastern Missouri and Western Illinois, although none of them actually live in the St. Louis city limits. They would have to be crazy to do that...

They laughed at me when I said the Royals biggest rival were the Cardinals.

Well, Sam Mellinger made an interesting point today. This rivalry is stale. It's like a broken record. Cardinals come into town. They bring 20,000 fans. The fans annoy us. We take it because our team sucks. They beat us. Life goes on.

There's hope on the farm, but it won't be here for a couple of years. It's time to take a break. Most Royals fans have what's left of their pride bashed to smithereens this time of year. I hate this series. It is my least favorite series of the year. It is an awful reminder of how far this once proud franchise has fallen. So I'm asking the Cardinals, Major League Baseball and Royals ownership to give us a couple of years to pick up the pieces. Keep the series in St. Louis. Sure this series is the biggest draw outside of opening day, but at what cost? Each year, the number of kids in this town wearing Albert Pujols jerseys grows.

We need some time, St. Louis. We owe it to this "rivalry" to take a break. Forget about us until October, then laugh at us when you look across at the AL Central standings to see we barely won 70 games. We'll be back. I don't know when, but we will be. And when we come back, hold on to your f**king hats, we'll be ready to take our stadium back.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Quick look at Nats and Royals lineups for tonight show you exactly where each organization is headed

Lineups: Royals @ Nationals, 6/21/2010

Washington
1. Nyjer Morgan, CF
2. Christian Guzman, 2B
3. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
4. Adam Dunn, 1B
5. Josh Willingham, LF
6. Ivan Rodriguez, C
7. Michael Morse, RF
8. Ian Desmond, SS
9. Livan Hernandez, SP

Kansas City
1. Scott Posednik, LF
2. Jason Kendall, C
3. David DeJesus, CF
4. Billy Butler, 1B
5. Jose Guillen, RF
6. Alberto Callaspo, 3B
7. Mike Aviles, 2B
8. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
9. Bruce Chen, SP


So here it is. This is probably the most depressing pitching matchup I've ever seen. Outside of that, we have two franchises going in opposite directions at the moment.

The Nationals are perennial losers and are quite the comic relief in the National League (remember when they couldn't even spell their name right on their jerseys?). But they have a lineup that isn't much better than the Royals, but its headed in a better direction than the Royals.

While the Royals have Scott Podsednik batting leadoff, the Nats have Nyjer Morgan, a guy with a lot of potential who was traded for Lastings Milledge. Win for Washington. They don't have Jason Kendall batting second. Win for Washington. They don't have Jason Kendall in their lineup. Win for Washington. Christian Guzman and Adam Dunn are actually pretty good veteran players for their big price tags, unlike say...Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Guillen? Win for Washington.

Pretty pathetic that what was essentially an expansion franchise is further along than the Royals. Oh yeah, Dayton Moore also had Zack Greinke, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon dropped in his lap. The Nats started from scratch. They're further along than the Royals because they're doing it the right way.

Win for Washington.