Friday, September 16, 2011

Focus in KC has shifted from Royals, but Royals focus on 2012 has not

Remember when the Chiefs lost to the Bills, 41-7? Yeah that sucked the life out of pretty much any and all football buzz around the sprawling metro KC area. I'll admit, I was in a sour mood from my football teams' performances in the last week. Pretty much ruined my entire Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. But then something turned it all around...I watched a Royals game.

This is going to be an extremely positive post. Quite a departure for me, I know. Usually in September I'm calling for Dayton Moore to resign, swearing off the Royals forever and only paying attention to NHL hockey or the Chiefs. But I've found myself unable to detach myself from this team and its young and exciting core.

The names we see run out there every night aren't the Jai Millers and Lucas Mays of Septembers past. These are legitimate big leaguers in the making. Mike Moustakas is finally finding his power stroke. Eric Hosmer continues perhaps the best overall rookie season in club history. Johnny Giavotella showing that at times he can be perfectly adequate. But there is one rookie who stands alone as the most impressive stallion in the Royals stable of young, sexy talent.

Salvador Perez.

It's not everyday that you see a 21-year-old catcher come up and play as impressively as Perez has in his first month with the Royals. Catcher is easily the most difficult position to play on the baseball diamond and Perez has come up and done nothing but play defense at a level expected from a perennial gold glover behind the plate. But the defense is something we have heard about ever since Perez was signed out of Venezuela by the Royals five years ago. The way he has handled the bat makes his first 29 games even more promising.

In 117 plate appearances (in my mind, this is not exactly a small sample size), Perez is hitting .318/.350/.455/.805. And those numbers are coming from hits to all fields. He's showing an incredible knack to hit the ball to all fields with incredible power. I'm one of those guys who values both scouting and stats, but not in the way that Kieth Law claims he does.

Perez is going to be something special, that's for sure. I don't know if we can even call this "development". It's more akin to "immediate adjustment" than development. I don't think there is a better catcher in the big leagues at the current moment than Salvadore Perez and I'm being 100% serious.

Perez is just the tip of the iceberg concerning reasons to be encouraged by what the Royals are doing in September right now. The team is loose and refuses to go through the motions as do most teams that are 22 games under .500 at this point of the season. The Royals are currently riding their longest winning streak in two years and have outscored their opponents 24-8 in those contests.

Not to go unmentioned is the scrapwork starting rotation that has really come together in the last month of the season. Luke Hochevar has been pretty damn good since the All Star Break. (I encourage everyone to go read this piece on Royals Authority). Felipe Paulino has faltered down the stretch, but I still expect him to be a contributor to the rotation next season. And finally, Bruce Chen just absolutely refuses to turn into a pumpkin. Also, a fond farewell to our neighbor from the north, Jeff Francis, who turned in a pretty respectable season and protected us from the likes of Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazarro for most of the season.
Link

But as the sun sets on 2011, the promise of 2012 is on the horizon for your Kansas City Royals. An offense that has the potential to score 800+ runs and a rotation that could possibly hold the fort well enough for the Royals to take a shot at the division crown in the ever-declining AL Central may just be enough to return Kansas City to one of the best baseball cities in these United States.

Let's just hope winter doesn't last too long.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Looking ahead to the absurdly good 2013 free agent class

While most Royals fans have their focus on Mission 2012, it has become obvious to this blogger that the real key to a contending team may not happen until the final out of the 2012 season has been recorded.

With starting pitching at the top of the Royals' offseason needs, I've started to wonder whether or not the Royals can actually field a contending team in 2012. Don't get me wrong, I think the Royals are going to be a much improved team in 2012. We'll likely see a complete overhaul of the starting rotation, with Mike Montgomery, Aaron Crow (fingers crossed), Greg Holland and possibly Chris Dwyer all competing for spots in spring training. That's encouraging, but it's far from a sure thing.

Mike Montgomery's command has been an issue this year. He's walking a lot more guys than he has in the past and giving up more HR/9 than at lower levels. It doesn't bother me that much. Monty has fantastic stuff. The word out of Omaha is that he hasn't been mixing in his devastating curveball as much as he has in the past. Based on his stuff alone, I think Monty can pass at the big league level and work things out in KC. Pitchers like Montgomery may take time to develop. With his arsenal of "ace" pitches, he'll still take time to develop into a good MLB starter. Don't expect much though for the first few years.

Aaron Crow seems to have melted under the sweltering KC summer heat. After a dominant first half of the 2011 season that granted him a spot on the AL All-Star roster, Crow has turned into a clone of Sean Lowe. The walks are up, opponents are hitting him all over the yard and it has become increasingly difficult to trust him in late game situations. This all could be attributed to Crow being overworked...except he's only thrown 55 innings this year. Word from some scouts and experts is that Crow isn't throwing his fastball as much as he was in the first half, trying to finesse hitters into outs. If Crow is indeed getting away from his fastball, this isn't a good sign for him or the Royals if the plan is to move him into the rotation in spring training next year.

Greg Holland just might have the best stuff of any pitcher on the Royals roster. He throws the fastball as well as I've seen since Joakim Soria first broke out in 2007. Holland has four pitches and throws them all extremely well. The fastball is an absolute work of art. Late life, dialed up to 97-98 MPH and it sets up his slider extremely well. The only issue might be the archaic baseball idea that bullpen guys simply can't move from the bullpen to the rotation. I'm not saying Holland would be a Cy Young candidate if moved into the rotation, but he would be a damn good #2 or #3 starter.

On to Chris Dwyer. He freaked a lot of folks out after a horrific first half. Now, he's strung together five consecutive outstanding starts. Dwyer is certainly a long shot to make the rotation next year out of spring training, but a strong finish to 2011 certainly puts him on the fast track to the big leagues and probable call up in mid-2012.

Even if that is the best case scenario, we still have an entire pitching rotation made up of question marks and Luke Hochevar. There are no guarantees on Danny Duffy's success. Bruce Chen is likely to turn into a pumpkin any day now. Jeff Francis, while walking less batters than Cliff Lee, still can't miss a bat to save his life. The Royals are going to have to break the bank and spend some money on a pitcher.

When they spend that money will be key. Diving into this year's free agency class would be a disaster. Heading up the class of 2012 will be CJ Wilson, a guy who is going to get an above market contract due to the fact that the rest of the class is a giant pile of steaming garbage. So before you go all "MARK BUEHRLE!!!!!!!111" on me, let's take a look at the 2013 free agency class:

Zack Greinke- I know we all pretend to be lovers scorned when this name is mentioned in KC, but if Zack would have us, I would buy the cake for the welcome home party.

Shaun Marcum- If the "hometown discount" is a real thing, then KC should be at the top of Marcum's list. If we can get something going in 2012, KC will be attractive to pitchers not from Excelsior Springs.

Anibal Sanchez- This is the guy I want the Royals to go all in on. His walk rate and ERA have been going down the past two years and he's going to be affordable since he plays in baseball purgatory on the easternmost stretches of the Florida Everglades. Going to be the sleeper in an otherwise loaded free agent class.

Jonathan Sanchez- Going to be a sexy name due to association with one of the best rotations in baseball, but his walk rate is astronomical. Might be available at a bargain price and possibly worth the risk. Very comparable to A.J. Burnett. Lots of walks, lots of strikeouts.

Matt Cain- Perhaps the sexiest name on the list, in my opinion. I'm going to bet he re-signs with the Giants. He's been buried in Tim Lincecum's shadow for several years, but I would love to see the Royals be aggressive in their pursuit of him.

Cole Hamels- He's a "winner" that baseball people love to talk about so much. In Philly, he's the #4 starter. In KC, he's the ace.

Of course, all of these names could be off the market by the time 2013 rolls around and we might be stuck with a young, promising rotation with question marks galore. Or we might make a huge free agent splash that puts us over the top.

I still expect us to compete and quite possibly contend in 2012. The foundation is being set before us and next year is sure to be met with expectations, hopes and dreams. David Glass signing checks may never be more important than it will be a year from now.

Saturday, August 6, 2011

With absurd division title hopes fizzling, focus needs to shift to 2012

Entering this weekend, I had a twinkle of hope running through my head. With a three-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers, the Royals could find themselves just eight (yes, EIGHT) games out of the division race.

Two 4-3 losses to the Tigers on Friday and Saturday night quickly pissed all over that twinkle of hope in my head.

If there's anything to be gained from these losses, it's the fact that the Royals have played two outstanding games against the old, overpaid cream of the AL Central's crop, the Detroit Tigers. Friday night's game was outstanding. Seeing Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Johnny Giavotella and Mike Moustakas lead a three-run comeback in the late innings had every Royals fan drooling all over the place at the thought of the same scenario playing out over the next decade. The energy shown by that group of young players on Friday night had me tricked into thinking it was a playoff game. Gio pumping his fist as he drove in Butler to open up the scoring was perhaps the greatest foreshadowing we've seen here since Tony Pena belted out "we believe" after Ken Harvey hit his famous homer in extras in 2003.

The series can be salvaged with a win on Sunday, but a loss puts the final nail in the coffin on a not quite lost 2011 season.

When people look back on the 2011 season in 25 years, they may see yet another 90+ loss season. When I look back on it, I'll view it as a metamorphosis, when the Royals finally cleansed a roster full of castoffs and mistake free players, turning over the leaf to a new era in Royals baseball.

Let's just look at how the roster, especially the lineup, has changed since opening day:

RF- Jeff Francouer (still here, supposed part of the future)
CF- Melky Cabrera (still here, hopefully a stop gap)
LF- Alex Gordon (still here, part of the future)
3B- Wilson Betemit (gone)
SS- Alcides Escobar (still here, part of the future)
2B- Chris Getz (still here, not part of the future)
1B- Kila Ka'aihue (still in the system, not part of KC's future)
DH- Country Breakfast (still here, part of the future)
C- Matt Treanor (still here, not part of the future)

The roster has been cleansed of 1/3 of those guys and now the Royals offensive lineup doesn't have a single player over the age of 27. Giavotella has mercifully replaced Chris Getz, Mike Moustakas is up, Hosmer is up, Duffy is up.

The roster turnover has only just begun in my mind. Soon we'll see the likes of Mike Montgomery, Sal Perez, Lorenzo Cain, David Lough and others grace the green grass of Kauffman Stadium and you'll start to see the team of the future forming in front of your eyes.

So stick out 2011. Stick out the one-run heartbreakers, the blown saves, the swings and misses on low and away sliders and the occasional bobbled ball. I've been telling people to get on the bandwagon for about a year now. All that's left is to take the first step and let your guard down. These guys can play and you can tell they are hungry to restore pride and glory to this downtrodden franchise and its masochistic fan base.

The future is here and it isn't just one player. It's several players. The new generation of Royals baseball to quench the thirst of the lost generation of Royals fans. We are thirsty and soon, we shall drink.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Top 20 Royals Tweeters

Since it's that time of year when most people aren't even paying attention to the Royals, I figured I would compile a list of my favorite Royals' tweeters. No matter how bad the Royals are, people are always going to use the social media platform of Twitter and use it to complain, inform and make one another laugh. This list does not include KC media (one exception). That being said, here is the first ever fluff piece on Royals Kingdom. Be sure to give these guys (and gals) a follow:

20. @Kevin_Agee- Complains about the Royals and does it extremely well. Biggest MO State tweeter out there as well.

19. @RoyallySpeaking (Jeff Parker, Royally Speaking)- One of my first followers on Twitter and a member of the old guard of the Royals' blogosphere...not to say that he's old or anything.

18. @mhays83 (Matt Hays, SB Nation Kansas City)- One of the most reasonable Royals fans on Twitter. Unabashed lover of the Iowa Hawkeyes.

17. @rustindodd (KC Star)- Sam Mellinger's replacement for Ball Star. No pressure.

16. @KCYETI (Kirk Harris)- KC YETI IS TEH AWESOME.

15. @grogg (Greg Layton)- Die hard Royals and Cubs fan. What the hell is wrong with him?

14. @pcbearcat (Ross Martin)- Smart ass Royals fan, he fits in with the rest of us.

13. @TJFsports (Tom Fehr)- Combine Royals tweets with tweets about Game of Thrones, Entourage, Todd Haley and Chipotle, you might have my best friend that I've never met. Add to the equation that he's a die hard KU fan and he's my sworn enemy. I will destroy him someday.

12. @royalsauthority (Craig Brown)- Head blogger over at Royals Authority. Hater of stolen bases and sac bunts.

11. @doublestix (Keith Blackburn)- For a guy who is younger than most Royals' prospects, Keith knows his stuff about the Royals farm system. And he hates the Twins. I mean, he REALLY hates the Twins. What's not to love?

10. @kcscoliny (Clint Scoles, Pine Tar Press)- A fine man from Nebraska on top of everything that is the Royals' farm system. Need some info about a Venezuelan pitcher in rookie ball at 2 am? He's your man.

9.@scobes15 (Kevin Scobee, Kings of Kauffman)- Most underrated (if there is such a thing on Twitter) Royals tweeter out there. Congratulations on recently moving out of your mother's basement and finding a woman willing to microwave your hot pockets. When he's not tweeting about the Royals, he's tweeting about The West Wing or The Wire.

8. @brokenbatsingle (Nick Scott, Royals Authority)- The armchair GM of Twitter. Unpopular thoughts, in-depth discussion, ground breaking tweets about fine ales.

7. @michaelengel- Head writer for Kings of Kauffman. Solid analysis of the Royals and pretty girls in Lawrence.

6. @KCRoyalman- Friend of Royals Kingdom and wearer of capes. Want a look into the mind of the most diehard of the diehards? Follow this man.

5. @Greg_Schaum- By far the most informed person on Twitter when it comes to Royals prospects. Good for the occasional NHL 94 tweet.

4. @royalsreview (Will McDonald)- Snark, snark and more snark. Any night when the Jeff Francouer's and Kyle Farnsworth's of the world are signed by the Royals is a must follow for Will.

3. @BHIndepMO (Brandon H.)- He's funny. He's brash. He's even keeled. This guy is the voice of the down-trodden Royals fan on Twitter. Knows the history of the team and isn't too pessimistic or optimistic. Coined the term #BoomYosted

2. @jazayerli- Rany is the smartest Royals fan out there. Doesn't tweet that much, but when he does, he makes it count.

1. @fakenedyost- This guy has a direct line to my funny bone. You probably already follow him and if you don't, then you should re-evaluate your life.

Honorable mention: @minda33 (And then she moved to Palm Springs and out of our lives)

Fans' choice: @oldmanduggan (After tallying the votes, Josh Duggan is your choice for one of the best Royals fans on Twitter.)

Friday, July 8, 2011

Royals with trade value, the unseen tapes

July 31 is rapidly approaching and it's obvious that the Royals are going to be in sell mode. The MLB trade deadline is when all armchair GM'ing spikes and everyone likes to pretend that they're Billy Beane (the Brad Pitt version of Billy Beane), making the big trade that can put your franchise over the top. But here's the truth for teams like the Royals, when you're in sell mode, these trades are usually just salary dump. So don't expect the Royals to make a blockbuster trade this July. I'll break it down for you right meow...

The guys everyone is talking about

Joakim Soria- Biggest name likely to be made available by the Royals, but with the trade market about to be saturated by relief pitchers, the Royals are going to be asking a lot for Soria, which they should. What the front office can't do, is accept any deal for Soria that is below their perceived value of Soria. Jack hasn't had the best season of his career, but has locked down the ninth inning with authority in the past few weeks and seems to be on the right track. But once again, the market will be watered down, which could work to the Royals advantage, considering Soria will be in the top tier of those relievers. I think Soria's trade value has started to go down, but a strong second half could put his trade value back at it's 2010 offseason value, where the Yankees allegedly offered uber-hitting prospect Jesus Montero for Soria. Any package that doesn't include high end starting pitching for Soria should be avoided. The Royals have the bats in the minors, it's time to stock the arms. Keep your eye on the Phillies, Tigers and Braves (of course) as possible destinations for Soria. Those three all have stockades of readily available young arms that would catch the Royals' eye.

My bet: 10% chance Soria is traded.
Demands: B+ RHP starter prospect, C+ RHP, athletic 2B in high minors

Melky Cabrera- Start the argument for best free agent acquisition by Dayton Moore because Melky has done nothing more than exceed all expectation this season. But he has to go, Lorenzo Cain and David Lough have proven that they are ready to make the jump to the big leagues and Melky is a guy with postseason experience that seems to be moved every single July no matter what kind of year he's having. Shouldn't bring back much, but the Royals can get decent value for him. He is under contract for next season and is still just 26-years-old.

My bet: 60% chance Melky is traded.
Demands: C+ starting pitching prospect/fireballer with command issues in low minors, straight up.

Jeff Francouer- Here's the guy I guarantee that the Royals will be overvaluing at the deadline. Anything more than cash or players to be named later for Francouer will be a steal. Yes, Frenchy has had a good year, but teams know all about Jeff Francouer. The selling points are pretty hollow, but the intangibles that some GMs overvalue might be enough to increase Frenchy's value.

My bet: 75% chance Frenchy is traded.
Demands: Cash or PTBNL.

Wilson Betemit- Stop fooling yourself, he isn't going to bring back diddly. Betemit had an amazing comeback year last year. If you follow the Royals closely, you know the story about Betemit. Former Braves super prospect who somehow got labeled as a bench player. Betemit's value isn't high because he's not an everyday player. There might be a team out there who thinks they can steal Betemit, and if they want to, go ahead and let them. Moustakas is up and Betemit plays once every six days.

My bet: 90% chance Betemit is traded.
Demands: AA pitcher

Jeff Francis- He'll be in pretty high demand by National League teams. The market for starting pitchers is pretty awful and Francis will be one of the better pitchers available in that market. He's the ideal 4-5 starter that teams are looking for this time of year. Might be able to get something better than expected for him, especially if a desperate team comes calling.

My bet: 95% chance Francis is traded.
Demands: AA pitcher

Billy Butler- Let me address this once and for all. Billy Butler should not be traded. Billy Butler is a good, maybe great player. Billy Butler is 25 years old. Billy Butler is a Hall of Fame talent.

My bet: 2% Butler is traded.
Demands: No less than four of the organization's top 10 prospects.

The guys who people aren't really talking about

Alex Gordon- His breakout season has started the trade rumor mill for Gordo. In my mind, the Royals can't afford to trade Alex Gordon. The potential has finally come through AND he's one of the best defensive left fielders in all of baseball. In fact, next to Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon is the best left fielder in all of baseball. I don't want him traded and the Royals would be taking several steps back in the development process. Gordon is a prime example of why you can't be impatient with a rebuild. The project is far from over, but the horizon looks very promising for #4.

My bet: 2% chance Gordon is traded.
Demands: Package Gordon with Giavotella or Dwyer for a PREMIUM starting pitching package that includes 2-3 B level starting prospects and the organization's best OF prospect.


Bruce Chen- For a guy who is quietly having one of the best seasons by a Royals lefty in a long time, Chen's name isn't being thrown around as much as I would expect. I'll be honest, I think Chen was a dynamite pickup by Dayton Moore. He's been our most consistent pitcher and has revived his career here. It isn't uncommon to see lefty pitchers put things together later on in their careers and go on to extend their playing days by a few years. I don't think the Royals will part ways with Chen unless they are offered a very good package for Chen.

My bet: 25% chance Chen is traded.
Demands: A pitcher from the organization's top 20.

Stay tuned, I'll be writing more about the trade deadline as we get closer to July 31.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Rebuttal to Chris Sullentrop's Grantland article

First, read.

Mr. Suellentrop,

First off, what an incredibly well written article. It is obvious that you attended the greatest journalism school on the planet, the University of Missouri.

But what also shines through in this article is the stereotypical douche resin that lingers around in this city after folks like you have left. Doesn't shock me that you're one of those lifelong Kansas fans who committed sports loyalty suicide when you opted to go to a good school like Mizzou, instead of accepting a second-rate, but still acceptable, journalism degree from your beloved Jayhawks. So it doesn't shock me in the least that you threw your hometown under the 20 million pound bus, with Bill Simmons at the wheel.

I'm sure you worship the ground that Bill Simmons walks on. The East Coast bias has probably infiltrated your mind by now. Either that or you've always viewed Kansas City as a second rate, insecure city and have dreamed about the big city while "wasting away" in the Midwest, where great journalists have been born.

Instead of following in the footsteps of Posnanski, Whitlock, Paige and Miklasz, you probably thought the easiest road to notoriety and written-word fame was to hit the bright lights of Broadway and wash away the shame of your "cow town" upbringing, while alienating your home city in the process. So I'm sure Bill Simmons and the good folks at Grantland contacted you because what self-righteous, East Coast trendster doesn't open up the New York Times every morning while drinking their half-caf, triple shot Starbuck's and smelling their own farts? I'm sure it was an easy decision for you.

So you wrote an article pretty much saying that Kansas City was a lonely, desolate place where children play under power lines, multi-million dollar arenas sit empty, women don't shave their legs and the winters last for seven months. Your reasoning in the article is laughable. Sprint Center is one of the country's busiest venues, but since there isn't an NBA team in town, it's a failure of an arena. You could have stopped there, but you didn't. Shot after shot came and by the end of the article, my blood was boiling.

You said you left KC for a bigger stage and a bigger paycheck. Well, you got that. But you have done it at a cost, sir. So have fun living in New York City, paying $1500 a month for 120 square feet and $7 for beer at a bar, living the good life and trying to rub elbows with smart people with smart jobs and smart clothes. I'll be here in Kansas City, loving where I was born and raised, drinking in giant parking lots and eating the best smoked meats in the world. You may have left KC, but I'm not entirely sure you ever truly lived here.

Nice suit.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Melky leading off and the "Magic Eight Ball" bullpen

After last night's atrocious offensive showing by the Royals, despite Alex Gordon nearly hitting for the first cycle by a Royals' player in over 20 years, Ned Yost hinted that lineup changes would come. Needless to say, I was relieved. I had grown awfully tired of seeing Jeff Francouer (who I have developed a man crush on after his fantastic first couple of months) struggle at the plate and turn into the Jeff Francouer of old.

Alex Gordon continued his actual dominance in the leadoff spot, becoming the best left fielder in the Major Leagues (it's true, look it up). He's been the only enjoyable part of this team in the months of May and June. This is awesome. Gordon had been unfairly dumped on by most Royals fans and media for a majority of his career and to see him pull off a season like this has made me incredibly happy and relieved as a fan. Hats off to Alex Gordon. If he isn't our All Star, then they should just let him punch Nick Swisher in the face.

So with a lineup switcheroo, you would think that Gordon would maintain his perch at the top of the Royals' lineup. He IS after all one of the hottest hitters in baseball this year.

Instead, it's Melky Cabrera. Melky has stayed consistent...but he isn't a leadoff hitter. When Gordon was inserted in the leadoff role, I was shocked and actually proud of the Royals for doing something so progressive. Gordon, in my mind, is the next generation of leadoff hitters in baseball. Good on base skills, decent enough speed, power to the gaps, doesn't strikeout...wait, isn't that what managers always say, despite when they put Chris Getz in the leadoff spot?

Frenchy was removed from the cleanup spot and busted all the way down to...fifth. I get it. I like Ned Yost. He's a guy who commands the respect of his team and gets it back in return. He put up with Frenchy in the cleanup spot about a month longer than I would have. I'm just hoping Frenchy didn't have a sit down with Yost and ask him to be removed from the cleanup role like Joakim Soria did when he asked to be removed from the closer's role.

But Yost's bullpen management has been the most frustrating part of the whole equation. With the Royals down by three in the eighth inning and threatening to come back, Yost seemingly drew a name out of a hat and out came Everett Teaford, a LOOGY. Teaford gives up a two-run bomb and the Royals lose. Of course, who knows what may have come if Teaford had gotten out of the inning, but in a three run game, the manager has to treat it like a three-run lead.

So Nick Wright of 610 Sports Radio came up with the "Magic Eight Ball Bullpen" meme the other day on his show and I'm not sure if I've ever heard a more outrageous, yet so dead-on metaphor for Ned's bullpen management.

Ned: Should I put Greg Holland in to face three lefties?
Magic 8 Ball: As I see it, yes.

Ned: Tim Collins can get lefties out, right?
Magic 8 Ball: Outlook good.
Ned: Screw you, I'll put him in anyways.

Ned: Should I have a reliever put one in Yadier Molina's kidney?
Magic 8 Ball: Very doubtful.
Ned: WHAT DOES THAT EVEN MEAN?!

I hope you still have the receipt to Spencer's Gifts...